U.S. war moves in Ukraine: Watch what they do, not what they say | Workers World

As activists, students and workers gather in Washington, D.C., for the “Spring Rising” anti-war mobilization March 18-21, many are probably unaware that 300 U.S. troops arrived in Ukraine this month, with another 300 expected to join them shortly.

The U.S. soldiers are stationed at the Yavoriv Training Area in Lviv, near the Polish border in western Ukraine. Their mission, according to the Pentagon, is to train divisions of the Ukrainian National Guard.

But their presence also establishes a provocative U.S. military “footprint” in this key agricultural and industrial country on the Russian Federation’s western border.

The first open and public U.S. military presence on Ukrainian soil comes amid a civil war raging in former southeastern Ukraine, now the independent Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, also called Novorossiya. It’s accompanied by unprecedented NATO war games and military buildup threatening Russia.

All this despite a ceasefire agreement, negotiated by Russia, Germany and France, which went into effect Feb. 15. As happened during previous ceasefires, the U.S.-backed government in Kiev routinely violates the terms and is using the “breathing spell” to rebuild its military forces to assault the embattled Donbass mining region.

“Before this week is up, we’ll be deploying a battalion minus … to the Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces for the fight that’s taking place,” the U.S.’s 173rd Airborne Brigade commander, Michael Foster, told a meeting of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington on March 3. (Global Research, March 3)

Complete story at - U.S. war moves in Ukraine: Watch what they do, not what they say | Workers World

For Ukraine, the Battle to Bolster a Crashing Economy Is as Dire as Combat in the East | RAND

by Olena Bogdan

Ukraine's fight to control its destiny is underway not only on its eastern battlefields but also in the halls of its parliament and in those of global financial institutions. The struggle to keep the former Soviet state afloat economically has been daunting, as the nation's parliament has fallen into disarray and failed to enact major economic reforms.

The country's gross domestic product fell by an estimated negative 8.2 percent by 2014's end. Government reserves have fallen to $7.5 billion, the equivalent of less than two months of imports. Ukraine's economic woes could get worse: If Western creditors, and the International Monetary Fund in particular, do not approve a recently negotiated $17.5 billion package, the nation will be deemed to be in default.

Ukrainian lawmakers could help improve the economic situation, particularly by dealing better with the national budget. But their recent deliberations inspired little public confidence.

The parliament launched its consideration of the 2015 budget at the end of 2014, laboring until 4 a.m. Dec. 29 to barely approve it — 233 of 450 of them voting in favor. The nationally televised discussions had lasted two weeks, and, at one point, lawmakers said the budget had undergone so many changes they needed a timeout so amendments could be incorporated into a plan that all could see. Rather than waiting, lawmakers jumped ahead in their deliberations.

The budget was published Jan. 1 to meet a legal deadline. But Ukrainian leaders quickly termed the budget provisional and said it would be subject to revisions as soon as January. A number of amendments were passed earlier last week (March 2).

That left a handful of top Ukrainian negotiators with the tricky task of persuading international lenders at a critical moment to provide billions of dollars more in aid without evidence the country would undertake reforms needed to enable it to repay the debt.

Complete story at - For Ukraine, the Battle to Bolster a Crashing Economy Is as Dire as Combat in the East | RAND

Ukrainian Authorities Struggle to Secure a Divided Mariupol

by Patrick Wells March 04, 2015

Since last month's cease-fire went into effect, shelling around the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol has decreased, but it is thought pro-Russian separatists remain poised to attack. For the city's authorities, a major challenge is gaining the trust of residents, while at the same time rooting out informants who are passing sensitive information to the rebels.

Children still play in the squares of central Mariupol, but this city is holding its breath. With the constant threat of separatist invasion, city authorities here acknowledge the population remains deeply divided.

They estimate just 30 percent support the government while another 30 percent support the rebels. They say the remaining 40 percent are undecided, longing only for a return to normality.

For Mariupol's Civil Defense Organization, this disunity makes the city even harder to secure. Ukrainian security services monitor mobile phone traffic to stop people from passing information to separatists. And there has been a spate of arrests in recent weeks as Ukrainian authorities try to root out suspected spies.

"All of these people were taking part in terrorist groups, and the relatives have no idea. What they have done? They transfer information, smuggle weapons, but mostly it's sending information," said Roman Sokolov, chairman of Mariupol Civil Defense Organization.

But this family disputes the official version of events. On Friday, Anna got a terrified phone call from her 14-year-old sister. She said armed men with no official identification papers had pushed their way into the house and beaten their father.

"My sister ran in here. She could see our father's face had a bruise from this tool. His face had been beaten, and it looked like they'd beaten his head on the table,' said Anna.

Anna said her father was not involved in politics, but the men took him away after beating him. She tried to follow them but she says they threatened to shoot her. Now she has no idea where he is.

Complete story at - Ukrainian Authorities Struggle to Secure a Divided Mariupol

Our Wars, Our Victims by Charles Simic | NYRblog | The New York Review of Books

Jon Stewart: “Right now, the Middle East is spiraling out of control. What should America do about this?”
Bassem Youssef, Egyptian comedian and satirist: “Well, how about… nothing.”
—The Daily Show, February 9, 2015

Since we rarely see real images of our wars today and have to fall back on simulated ones in Hollywood movies that make us look good, I wonder what Americans would say if they were shown graphic footage of the results of US drone attacks, some of the many wedding parties or funerals we mistook for gatherings of terrorists and reduced to “bug splats,” in the parlance of those dispatching our missiles. The idea that wiping out a bunch of innocents along with a few bad guys will make us safer at home and not make us more enemies everywhere is nuts, and so is the argument that the atrocities we find appalling in others are acceptable when perpetrated by us.

All this ought to be obvious to our leaders in Washington, but apparently it isn’t. President Obama’s new request for war authorization, now pending before Congress, to fight ISIS over the next three years with further airstrikes and “limited” combat operations, despite the complete failure of all our previous attempts in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Yemen to do any good, may make our wars legal, but no less foolish.

What Czeslaw Milosz said of the last century is unfortunately already true of this one: Woe to those who think they can save themselves without taking part in a tragedy. Millions of Americans certainly continue to think so, even after September 11 and all the wars we have fought since and are still fighting. Television footage and newspaper photographs do not convey the scale of destruction and death in New York City on that day. One needed to have stood at least once under the twin towers to grasp their immense height and magnitude. Although I did, it took me days and months to comprehend fully what had occurred. Even after the second airliner struck the towers, it didn’t cross my mind that they might collapse. When they did, my mind had trouble accepting what my eyes were seeing. It was like a movie, people said afterward. We’d exit the dark movie theater with a shudder and go back to our lives. I thought Americans would finally begin to understand what being bombed is like.

Complete story at - Our Wars, Our Victims by Charles Simic | NYRblog | The New York Review of Books

Another U.S. Veteran Passionately Pleads – “Please Don’t Thank Me for My Service” | Liberty Blitzkrieg

Last fall, Liberty Blitzkrieg highlighted a powerful letter written by former U.S. Army Ranger Rory Fanning, in the post: “Stop Thanking Me for My Service” – Former U.S. Army Ranger Blasts American Foreign Policy and The Corporate State. In it, I explained why his comments resonated so powerfully with me. Here’s an excerpt:

I have to admit, whenever I find myself in the midst of a large public gathering (which fortunately isn’t that often), and the token veteran or two is called out in front of the masses to “honor” I immediately begin to cringe as a result of a massive internal conflict. On the one hand, I recognize that the veteran(s) being honored is most likely a decent human being. Either poor or extraordinarily brainwashed, the man or woman paraded in front of the crowd is nothing more than a pawn. Even if their spouse hasn’t left them; even if whatever conflict they were involved in didn’t result in a permanent disability or post traumatic stress disorder, this person has been used and abused, and thirty seconds of cheering in between ravenous bites out of a footlong hotdog from a drunk and apathetic crowd isn’t going to change that. I don’t harbor negative sentiments toward the veteran.

On the other hand, the entire spectacle makes me sick. I refuse to participate in the superficial charade for many reasons, but the primary one is that I don’t want to play any part in the crowd’s insatiable imbecility. It’s the stupidity and ignorance of the masses that the corporate-state preys upon, and that’s precisely what’s on full display at these tired and phony imperialist celebrations.

Interestingly and satisfyingly, it appears the phony “thank you for your service” comment is seen as the empty, thoughtless platitude it is by a large amount of U.S. veterans. Rather than saying “thank your for your service,” it appears increasingly clear the appropriate sentiment should be something like, “I’m really sorry American leadership carelessly sacrificed your life for no good reason.”

Complete story at - Another U.S. Veteran Passionately Pleads – “Please Don’t Thank Me for My Service” | Liberty Blitzkrieg

Drums Along The Potomac: How This Country Never Learns Anything

Quite frankly, this has been one of the more depressing weeks we have seen in a very long time. The country seems to be sliding down some very familiar tracks into a military engagement in the Middle East -- an engagement that, at the moment, seems to be cloudy in its objectives, vague in its outlines, and obscure on the simple fact of what we are supposedly fighting for, and who we will be fighting with. Can we fight the Islamic State generally without help from (gasp!) Iran? Can we fight the Islamic State in Syria without a de facto alliance with Hafez al-Assad, who was Hitler only a year or so ago? And the most recent polling seems to indicate that all the institutions that are supposed to act as a brake on war powers within a self-governing republic are working in reverse again. The Congress is going to debate how much leeway it should give the president to make war, not whether he should be allowed to do it at all. The elite media, having scared Americans to death by giving the barbarians and their slaughter porn the international platform the barbarians so desired, is jumping on board with both feet. (To cite only one example, Chris Matthews is suiting up again.) The country has been prepared to give its children up again. At the very least, public opinion on what we should do is a muddle, which means that any plan that looks "bold" likely will carry the country with it, unintended consequences be damned.With the intelligence all pointing toward bin Laden, Rumsfeld ordered the military to begin working on strike plans.

Amid more executions by the militant group ISIS, Americans increasingly see the group as a threat to the U.S. Now, 65 percent of Americans view ISIS as a major threat - up from 58 percent in October - while another 18 percent view it as a minor threat. Majorities of Republicans (86 percent), Democrats (61 percent) and independents (57 percent) view ISIS as a major threat. Support for sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS has risen among all partisans, but particularly among Democrats and independents. Back in October, 56 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of independents disapproved of using ground troops - now 50 percent of Democrats approve and 53 percent of independents favor using ground troops.

You can see the logical canyon, can you not? The Islamic State is no more an actual threat to the United States than it was in October. But there have been more garish executions and more events elsewhere, so the perceived threat -- real or not -- has begun to work its dark magic on the national imagination, the way that aluminum tubes and mushroom clouds once did. The more bellicose of our leaders are openly shilling for a general engagement on the ground; the inevitable John McCain inevitably has called for a "mere" 10,000 ground troops, and he wants those troops to help fight against both the Islamic State and Assad. Because...do something!

You develop a strategy and elements of the strategy are American boots on the ground and not the 82nd Airborne, the president keeps setting up these straw man saying we want to send in masses of American troops, we don't, but we need to have American..air controllers, special forces, many others. I'm talking about about ten thousand in Iraq. Then we need to say our objective is to eliminate Bashar Assad as well as ISIS in Syria and we recruit a other Arab nations with Americans but not too many to fight against ISIS and Bashar Assad in Syria and coordinate those movements with air power guided by air controllers.

Complete story at - Drums Along The Potomac: How This Country Never Learns Anything

War in Ukraine: Who Wants War? And Who Doesn’t? | Dissident Voice

“Russian aggression” – the bad faith mantra of dishonest brokers

Just as NATO allies Germany and France were undertaking a peace initiative with Russia and Ukraine, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry turned up in Kiev at the same time, seeking to poison the talks before they started by spouting yet again the ritual U.S. accusation of “Russian aggression.” The incantation is meaningless without context. Its purpose is mesmerize a false consciousness. “Russian aggression” may or may not exist in the events of the past year, just like “Russian self-defense.” Reporting on the ground has been too unreliable to support any firm analysis, never mind the provocative “Russian aggression” the U.S. brandishes as a virtual call for war.

Western aggression, political and diplomatic more than military, is a cold reality and has been for two decades. The West, and especially the U.S., has yet to accept responsibility for 20 years of anti-Russian aggression, much less pull back from such perennial hostility. The Obama administration (parts of it at least, given the incoherence of the “administration”) has acted as if its pulling off an only-slightly-violent coup in Kiev in 2014 was a grand triumph. Worse, having grabbed a government on Russia’s borders, the Obama hawks carry on as if the only reasonable choice for Russia is to accept the success of this Western aggression.

Rarely is this context acknowledged in discussions of the natural fissures in Ukraine that feed sectarian civil war. Rather the issues are over-simplified – falsified – by the U.S. Secretary of State, consistent with a hidden agenda of provoking a military confrontation (at the very least) with Russia and eastern Ukrainians. That’s the subtext that makes sense of Kerry’s otherwise seeming blithering in Kiev on February 5:

We talked about the largest threat that Ukraine faces today, and that is Russia’s continued aggression in the east. There’s no other way to call it. We’re not seeking a conflict with Russia. No one is. … The president is reviewing all of his options. Among those options, obviously, is the possibility of providing defensive — defensive — assistance to Ukraine. And those discussions are going on. The president will make his decision, I am confident, soon.

Note the lie: “We’re not seeking a conflict with Russia. No one is.”

When Kerry said that, he was lying, he almost surely knew he was lying, and the question is whether his lie represents only the rogue war-faction in the U.S., or is part of a dicey good-cop/bad-cop routine out of Washington. The only way it’s true that “we’re not seeking a conflict” is that the U.S. is already engaged in conflict with Russia, decades-long and currently escalating. The lie of not seeking a conflict already engaged is used to mask the lie of “defensive weapons,” a military-diplomatic oxymoron of long standing. So the most obvious answer to the question of who wants war in Ukraine is elements of the U.S. government whose immediate challenge is to persuade its Kiev client that it’s a good idea to risk turning its country into more of a battlefield than it already is.

Kiev’s desire is more obscure, and likely divided. Having taken power in something of a slow-motion coup d’etat last spring, the government faced a restive-to-defiant population in eastern Ukraine. Rather than seeking to negotiate legitimate grievances with the eastern region, the Kiev government chose instead to escalate quickly, from political hostilities into civil war. When that didn’t work out militarily, when Kiev started losing what it started, it agreed on September 5 to terms of a ceasefire that it then failed to honor with consistency (as did the separatists). Now the Ukrainian president has been to Moscow for early peace talks, but only after he staked out a preposterous public position seeking to win with a losing negotiating hand what Kiev has already lost on the ground.

Complete story at - War in Ukraine: Who Wants War? And Who Doesn’t? | Dissident Voice

Ukrainian journalist faces 15 years in jail after calls to boycott the draft | openDemocracy

A Ukrainian journalist has been arrested for publishing a video calling on his fellow citizens to boycott mobilisation. He is being charged with treason and espionage.

A court in the western Ukrainian city of Ivano-Frankivsk has ordered the arrest of a local freelance journalist on charges of espionage and high treason after he published a video on YouTube calling on Ukrainian citizens to boycott the mobilisation of Ukrainian men to fight a ‘fratricidal war’ in Ukraine’s east.

Ruslan Kotsaba, a freelance contributor to various Ukrainian TV channels, was arrested in the early hours of Sunday 8 February, according to Ukrainian media reports quoting the journalist’s wife. The court ruled on the same day that he should be held on remand for two months until his trial. Media representatives were reportedly barred from video and audio recording in the courtroom during the session.

Markiyan Lubkivsky, an adviser to the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) said in a comment posted on his Facebook page on Sunday that materials have been seized from Kotsaba’s house, ‘which may indicate the commission of crimes’ under Article 111 (treason) and 114 (espionage) of Ukraine’s Criminal Code.

If convicted Kotsaba, 48, faces up to 15 years in prison.

Referring to the video that Kotsaba posted on YouTube, the court said in its ruling that his anti-mobilisation calls ‘hampered lawful activities of Ukraine’s Armed Forces’ and that they constituted ‘subversive activities’ against Ukraine.

In the video, Kotsaba, who has travelled to the eastern regions where government troops are waging a war against Russia-backed separatists, called on Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko – whom he says he had voted for in last year’s elections – to stop the fighting in the country’s restive Donbas region. A father of two children, he proclaimed that he would rather go to jail for dodging mobilisation than agree to kill his own compatriots ‘Glory to Ukraine!’ he exclaimed at the end of the video.

Complete story at - Ukrainian journalist faces 15 years in jail after calls to boycott the draft | openDemocracy

Ten Reasons Why We Should Celebrate the Inevitable Nuclear Holocaust - Russia Insider

A hundred years ago, the world “sleepwalked” into the First World War, the war that wiped out an entire generation of Europeans. Aren’t we repeating the same sleepwalking march again, this time with even deadlier consequences? The recent baiting and bullying of Russia and the Russian-speaking population of Eastern Ukraine; the proposals in Congress to supply lethal military aid to Ukraine coupled with the Defense Secretary nominee's enthusiasm for such help, all indicate a major dysfunction of rationality.

Russia has been sending signals that it is not backing off from this conflict, that the situation in Ukraine is too important to its national security. Recent signals of Russia’s resolve include its reformulation of its military doctrine that views NATO expansion into Russia’s neighborhood as the major threat; and the view of US policy in Ukraine as a proxy war against Russia.

While some scholars and journalists point to the possibility, if not inevitability, of the all out war, major news outlets prefer to underreport the depth of the conflict, treating it as something farcical rather than tragic. Maybe the press and politicians have the point? After all, how can a possible war with a nuclear-armed rival be serious? So let’s learn from our political leaders and stop worrying. We might as well die laughing:

10. In regular wars, common people die in the trenches while those who send them there spend their time giving speeches at luncheons and making TV appearances. By contrast, a nuclear war will put everyone in the same boat. We, the people, should all rejoice in the fact that we’ll finally witness the examples of personal courage and leadership provided by our brave politicians. To see a politician putting his money where his mouth is, is one of the greatest joys of citizenry. For many true patriots, it is a joy worth dying for.

Complete story at - Ten Reasons Why We Should Celebrate the Inevitable Nuclear Holocaust - Russia Insider

Confessions of a Ukrainian fighter - Fort Russ

February 4, 2015
Katerina Yuzko - Liva
Translated by Kristina Rus

Vitaly is staying in one of the clinics in Kiev, where the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine go through physical and psychological rehabilitation. The "ATO veteran", who is only 22 years old, is diagnosed with a PTSD. The volunteer soldier talks about what has changed in his attitude towards the war since he got to the front.

You went into the National guard as a volunteer, although the war was starting. Why?

Now its very hard to say why I did it. Yes, I consider myself a patriot of Ukraine, but was not interested in politics. Even went to Maidan only a couple times. My friend has long been fond of nationalist things. Even before Maidan he constantly went on all sorts of nationalist marches, attended the concerts. Other friends, too, were into it. When it all started, they went as volunteers - and me too. Let's just say - I couldn't not support my friends. Although we still ended up in different places. Well, anyway, it was interesting at first. It was cool - the military theme, weapons, uniform. I never served in the army.

And what did they say at work and your family when you decided to go into the national guard?

I didn't have a job, and my parents were shocked, of course. Back then there was no meat grinder, I somehow calmed them down. Said, that everything will be over soon, there will be no "serious" war, they will make noise, scatter, and I'll be back home. Thought so myself.

Are your friends live?

All alive and also at home. But one had a hand amputated. Learning to write with the left one.

How did the locals treat you?

In the village mostly retirees remained. The majority of those who are younger, have already left. There never was DPR in this village, but many clearly sympathized with the seperatists. We were treated poorly. I was attacked immediately by the old ladies in the store, shouted to me about the "junta", about "fascists", that we bombed Lugansk, and fired at hospitals. We were not welcome, in short.

And were did the young people go? In the militia?

I think fifty-fifty. Some went to fight for the "Separs" [Separatists], many people moved away from the war, not to go in the army or be taken into DPR.

Have you had conflicts with the locals?

There were, of course. We lived in tents, and then a few guys decided to stay in a house of one grandmother. The house was big, but her children left when it all started. Offered the grandmother money, to help around the house. Grandma refused out right. The boys flipped out, and moved in anyway. Grandma complained to the commander, but she was told to buzz off. Then grandma began to throw fits every day. After a couple days the guys could not take it anymore and left themselves.

There was another unpleasant incident. Came a local man with a wife, they took their children to Primorsk, and were taking belongings out of the house. The man immediately arrested, suspected as a "separ" [separatist]. In the village everyone knew him, a lot of people came to us, asked to let him go. Wife called to the resort, where their children were, to confirm that the man was there all the time. But he was still taken to Pavlograd. Don't know what happened to him after.
.
In general, we didn't feel like we belonged there. This is clear. And I went to defend these people. Cognitive dissonance. Very soon I ceased to understand what we're doing there. Wanted to talk with the locals - what they want, why the need for "separatism"? But there was no contact. Although people are like us. I did not notice much difference.

Complete story at - Confessions of a Ukrainian fighter - Fort Russ

"Thus began the slaughter"--Debaltsevo and its Consequences - Fort Russ

The Debaltsevo Collapse

By Yurasumy

Translated from Russian by J.Hawk

Fighting in Debaltsevo outskirts have been continuing for several days. Their intensity approaches the earlier fight for the Donetsk Airport. Considering the length of the frontline, the Battle for Debaltsevo is increasingly reminiscent of the Battle of Ilovaysk.

The wedge that was pushed into Novorossia defenses during the summer had strategic sense for the Ukrainian military. In the event the offensive was continued, one could have launched a disintegrating blow that would have cut off the entire Donetsk-Makeyevka-Gorlovka urban agglomeration in one fell swoop. But during the winter, when it became obvious the Ukrainian military is in no condition to attack, from the military point of view the salient should have been abandoned.

But that’s the military point of view. As we know, wars are started and ended by politicians, the soldiers just do the dying. The Ukrainian politicians, for their part, could not care less about Ukrainian soldiers. The media, in its attempt to consolidate Poroshenko’s oligarchic regime, inflated many myths, about the “cyborgs”, the “unbreakable three lines of defense,” etc., thus luring the Ukrainian army into the Debaltsevo noose out of which there is no way out.

One could not have thought of a better configuration of the frontline and the confluence of circumstances (specifically the junta’s attachment to its positions) in order to destroy the Debaltsevo grouping. Novorossia, of course, could not pass it up…

But the Ukrainian soldiers could not retreat. They were forbidden by their commanders, who were told by politicians that they HAVE TO hold on to Debaltsevo, just as they were told half a year ago that they HAVE TO hold Ilovaysk. No matter what. Even if it is an ideal target for modern artillery.

Just to understand the hopelessness of the Ukrainian position, one must keep in mind that at Debaltsevo 90% of casualties are caused by artillery fire. In the last few days Novorossia forces gradually used its artillery to force Ukrainian units off the commanding heights, took the only road from Artemovsk under fire. Junta soldiers report that Novorossia artillery superiority here is simply overwhelming. Even without a full encirclement, Novorossia can shoot Ukrainian fortified points with impunity.

Thus began the slaughter.

Complete story at - "Thus began the slaughter"--Debaltsevo and its Consequences - Fort Russ

Ukraine wants peace while Kiev junta wants war - Fort Russ

Russian talk show "Sunday Night with Vladimir Solovyev"
Semen Uralov, Ukrainian political scientist

Translated by Kristina Rus

We have to take into account the mood in the society. We recently held a survey in Odessa, then we exchanged the information with our colleagues in Kiev and Western Ukraine.

80% in Odessa region are for ending the war by any means.

In Kiev this number is near 60%.

In Western Ukraine it is approaching 70%.

The mood in the Ukrainian society is shifting towards pacifism. But those who are in charge will continue to push for war.

Translators Note:

What better evidence that the Kiev junta does not represent the people of Ukraine? The government formed from the marginal right-wing parties via a violent coup did not become less marginal even after orchestrating a semblance of democratic elections. Clearly this is why it needs dictate and terror to stay in power. This is why it needs to manufacture an outside threat to generate support., since it has little else to offer the population, just the opposite.

The question is - how long will the people of Ukraine put up with this?

Complete story at - Ukraine wants peace while Kiev junta wants war - Fort Russ

The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP

Debaltsevo cauldron - still *not* closed:

According to Cassad, the cauldron is still not closed and I trust him. This being said, the Novorussians are holding the only highway out of the cauldron under their fire and they selectively allow some units to leave (medical, support & staff, for propaganda purposes) while destroying others (combat units). So even if the cauldron ain't quite closed, the junta forces are de-facto surrounded. See map (from Cassad):

Novorussian air defenses:

Remember the Tochka-Us shot down over Saur Mogila? Auslander reported that they had been shot down by (non-Novo) Russian. Then recently, two junta Tochkas "broke up in mid air". This time around the Novorussians have admitted that they shot down at least one Tochka. See the photo (also from Cassad):

The interesting thing is that Cassad mentions the Russian short range air defense system Pantsir as the system which might have shot down the Tochka. This is interesting for a number of reasons:

1) The Pantsir is a brand new Russian system. IF a Pantsir really did this, then the fact that the Novorussians are saying so basically means "Putin is arming us and we ain't even hiding it". A message to Kiev maybe?

2) The Pantsir is not supposed to be designed to shoot down ballistic missiles. IF a Pantsir really did this, then it proves that its real capabilities are far larger then its officially advertised ones.

3) If this was NOT a Pantsir, then we go right back to the explanation of last summer: the Russians are "covering" Novorussians with their S-300PMs.

I am personally inclined to believe the that this is what happened. The Pantsir is a very advanced "combined" (missile+guns) mobile but *point* defense systems designed to shoot down cruise missiles, aircraft and precision weapons. Ballistic missiles are different due to their speed and flight trajectory. Whatever may be the case, the fact that the Novorussians admitted that "they" shot down the Tochka is very good news as it shows a degree of confidence which will horrify Kiev.

The 4th Junta mobilization is the 4th one to totally fail:

Yup, just like the 3 previous ones, the 4th mobilization completely failed. According to a Ukrainian newspaper up to 80% of the conscripts do not want to go to fight. I am not sure about the 80% figure, but it appears to be a huge problem which further waves of mobilizations (the 5th one has already been announce) will, of course, not solve at all.

Novorussia (finally) announces a full mobilization:

Zakharchenko has announced that Novorussia is declaring a full mobilization. The neat thing is that this mobilization will be *voluntary* but that Zakharchenko expects 100'000 men to show up. Here we can only "thank" the junta for its systematic terror campaign against the towns and cities of Novorussia which has acted better than any recruitment center ever could. If the Novorussians really succeed in getting these kinds of numbers, and my guess is that they will, by next summer the junta will be in real danger of really losing all of historical Novorussia and of having Crimea linked to Russia by land.

Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP + open thread

Our dangerous new McCarthyism: Russia, Noam Chomsky and what the media’s not telling you about the new Cold War - Salon.com

It is time to attempt that hardest of things—to see ourselves for who we are, to see what it is we are doing and what is being done to us.

Two things prompt the thought. We have the latest news on Washington’s confrontation with Russia, and we have a newly precipitous decline in the national conversation on this crisis. In my estimation, we reach dangerous new lows in both respects.

It is always difficult for the living to see themselves as suspended in history. Being up against the rock face of events, being the stuff of which events are made, allows no distance, and achieving perspective without any takes an arduous effort.

But we have to make an attempt at this field of vision now. Every moment counts as history, but some passages are bigger than others. And this, ours, is very big as of the last 10 days, maybe two weeks.

We are now invited to let this time take a place alongside the frenzied interval that preceded the American attack on the Spanish in 1898, the Red Scare of the post-1917 period and the second, very deadly (and deadening) McCarthyist scare of the late-1940s and 1950s. Join me, please, in insisting we are a better people than this.

Konstantin Sonin, a professor at a much-celebrated research university in Moscow, gave the New York Times an interesting quotation over the weekend. “The country is on a holy mission. It’s at war with the United States,” Sonin said. “So why would you bother about the small battleground, the economy?”

Think about this, and do so in two dimensions. There is the question of war, and then the question of “small battlegrounds.” What is this man talking about? What assumptions lie behind this remark? What are the implications?

In last week’s column I confessed astonishment at the recent turn of events in Ukraine and the Western alliance’s relations with Russia. Western Europe, teetering at the edge of economic crisis, adds significantly to its vulnerabilities as it acquiesces in Washington’s sanctions regime against the Russian Federation. It is a couple of short steps now from crisis to catastrophe.

Kiev bails on peace talks and instantly launches an ambitious offensive in eastern Ukraine. As those eligible to be conscripted defect in some number to Russia, Ukraine remains heavily reliant on neo-Nazi militias—a documented reality no one in Washington or the American media cares to talk about. Instead, Washington announces—just this week; read it here —that it will begin sending troops to train Ukrainian National Guardsmen as of this spring.

The very latest arrives as this column gets written. Fresh reports from Moscow suggest—verbatim from one summary will do—“U.S. plans Euromaidan in Belarus to overthrow Lukashenko. Local nationalists licking their chops.” The Maidan is the square in Kiev where the Ukraine crisis started two Novembers ago. Lukashenko is Alexander Grigoryevich, who has presided in Belarus for the past 21 years.

I cannot confirm these reports—four, written in Russian—but I will begin following Lukashenko’s political fortunes closely, this I assure you. His sins are two. In the immediate post-Soviet period he blocked the neoliberal “shock therapy” that ravaged Russia and many other economies after the Soviet Union collapsed. More recently he sponsored the peace talks in Minsk that Kiev just abandoned. Dreadful man, Lukashenko.

Complete story at - Our dangerous new McCarthyism: Russia, Noam Chomsky and what the media’s not telling you about the new Cold War - Salon.com

‘Group-Thinking’ the World into a New War | Consortiumnews

This approach has been part of the neocon playbook at least since the 1980s when many of today’s leading neocons – such as Elliott Abrams and Robert Kagan – were entering government and cut their teeth as propagandists for the Reagan administration. Back then, the game was to put, say, Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega into the demon suit, with accusations about him wearing “designer glasses.” Later, it was Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega and then, of course, Saddam Hussein.

Instead of Americans coming to grips with the painful history of Central America, where the U.S. government has caused much of the violence and dysfunction, or in Iraq, where Western nations don’t have clean hands either, the story was made personal – about the demonized leader – and anyone who provided a fuller context was denounced as an “Ortega apologist” or a “Noriega apologist” or a “Saddam apologist.”

So, American skeptics were silenced and the U.S. government got to do what it wanted without serious debate. In Iraq, for instance, the American people would have benefited from a thorough airing of the complexities of Iraqi society – such as the sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite – and the potential risks of invading under the dubious rationale of WMD.

But there was no thorough debate about anything: not about international law that held “aggressive war” to be “the supreme international crime”; not about the difficulty of putting a shattered Iraq back together after an invasion; not even about the doubts within the U.S. intelligence community about whether Iraq possessed usable WMD and whether Hussein had any ties to al-Qaeda.

All the American people heard was that Saddam Hussein was “a bad guy” and it was America’s right and duty to get rid of “bad guys” who supposedly had dangerous WMDs that they might share with other “bad guys.” To say that this simplistic argument was an insult to a modern democracy would be an understatement, but the propaganda worked because almost no one in the mainstream press or in academia or in politics dared speak out.

Those who could have made a difference feared for their careers – and they were “right” to have those fears, at least in the sense that it was much safer, career-wise, to run with the herd than to stand in the way. Even after the Iraq War had turned into an unmitigated disaster with horrific repercussions reaching to the present, the U.S. political/media establishment undertook no serious effort to impose accountability.

Complete story at - ‘Group-Thinking’ the World into a New War | Consortiumnews

Ukraine's Government Is Losing Its War. Here Is Why: Washington's Blog

On January 27th, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense headlined “Militants Continue to Suffer Losses,” and reported that four helicopters, and other weapons of the “militants,” were destroyed in battle, but no evidence was given to support the assertion.

Just two days prior, the (also pro-Government) Kiev Post had, in fact, bannered “Ukraine Hides Devastating Losses as Russia-Backed Fighters Surge Forward,” and reported “Ukraine’s worst-kept secret — that the Ukrainian army is drastically understating its casualties.” After detailing, there, what seems to be outrageous unconcern by the Government, for the welfare of troops it’s sending into battle (even by jamming battlefield-injured soldiers into regular civilian hospitals, which aren’t equipped to handle their injuries), this report ends with a doctor saying, “It’s bad everywhere. Yes, the soldiers are still standing at their positions ready to fight. But we don’t see any help coming for them.”

The Ukrainian news agency RIAN headlined on January 26th, “Mobilization in Dnipropetrovsk Almost Drowned,” and reported, “In Dnipropetrovsk region [which is run by the U.S. White House’s friend, the Ukrainian-Swiss-Israeli billionaire Ihor Kolomoysky, whose longstanding personal mercenary army has, alone, more than 5,000 fighters], thousands of men are hiding from the draft. Enforcement officers recognize that accomplishing their task will be very difficult.” More than 2,000 people there who were drafted “did not show up, they evaporated.”

Consequently, the Government is dragooning-in, or “ambushing” (as the article says), virtually anyone who seeks help from the Government, “mobilizing the unemployed” and other “desperate” people. “Military enlistment offices complain” that some draftees are too sick to be able to fight at all.

Also on January 26th, the Fort Russ blog bannered, “Azov Commander Freaks Out, Calls the War ‘Lost’. Blames Everybody,” and reported that, “Ukrainian politicians and generals ‘already lost the war,’ and ‘the West did not help.’ That’s the core of the statement by Azov punitive [meaning: to ‘punish’ the residents in the anti-Government region, for their not supporting the Government] battalion commander’s, and currently also Rada [Parliament] Deputy’s, Andrey Biletsky, in his ‘Address to the Nation.’” According to Biletsky, after the fictitious “thousands of supposedly killed enemies and burned out tanks, the wake-up can be very painful,” because of disappointment felt from the Government’s lies.

Complete story at - Ukraine's Government Is Losing Its War. Here Is Why: Washington's Blog

Poroshenko adviser leaks disastrous data about the fourth wave of mobilization - Fort Russ

Got the first report on the implementation of the plan of the fourth wave of mobilization. Across the country, in each region.

AND I DON'T GET IT!

I don't understand the phrases, do not understand the facts.

... The heads of 14 rural councils of Ivano-Frankivsk oblast refused to accept the summons for notifications

... 57% of notified conscripts in Ivano-Frankivsk region did not arrive for medical commission.

... 37% of notified conscripts of Ivano-Frankivsk region have left the territory of Ukraine

... Heads of rural councils of Ternopil region openly sabotage events of notification, in case of appearance in the area of representatives of RVC - warn the residents of their own and surrounding villages.

... the head of the village council of Konyukhi, Kozovsky district reported that local people rented 2 buses and left for the territory of the Russian Federation.

... in the township of Colchino, Mukachevo district of Transcarpathian region, out of 105 people the summons were presented to only three: 9 persons do not reside at the address of registration, and 93 people during January left for "seasonal agricultural work".

... over the last 30 days the state border in the Chernivtsi region was crossed by 17% of the total number of conscripts of the region. From unofficial sources it is known that hostels and motels in the border region of neighboring Romania are completely filled with Ukrainian men evading conscription.

... 19% of notified conscripts of Volyn oblast refused military service on religious grounds, although in previous years the percentage of rejects for this reason did not exceed 0.7 percent.

Patriots, b$tch. The warriors of light, b%tch. Cowardly dogs!"

Complete story at - Poroshenko adviser leaks disastrous data about the fourth wave of mobilization - Fort Russ

War weary: Ukrainians voice resistance to new mobilization -- Society's Child -- Sott.net

Ukrainians are starting to realize that the war in the East is pointless. Their real enemies are in Kiev

Kiev authorities have announced that the next wave of mass mobilization will begin on January 28. But Ukrainians seem less than enthusiastic. From TASS:

Experts said it would not be easy for the authorities to carry out mobilization, as the Ukrainian population realizes that Kiev's military operation in the east has no sense.

A Ukrainian analyst and the founder of the Research and Branding Group company, Yevgeny Kopatko, said more and more statements were heard in the Ukrainian society about readiness to sit in prison, but not to go to fight. In the situation, the decision on mobilization will be another test for the Ukrainian authorities, he said.

Mobilization will be carried out in Ukraine in three stages and will last from January to August. During the year, the Ukrainian armed forces plan to mobilize 200,000 citizens and also draft 40,000 young people for military service.

This local news report from Kiev seems to indicate that many citizens will resist mobilization:



Complete story at - War weary: Ukrainians voice resistance to new mobilization -- Society's Child -- Sott.net

The 4th Media » War and Dollar: To Protect US Dollar, The FRB, US Bankers Prepare for a Major War

Although many funerals have been held for the US dollar, still it lives on. On the eve of the collapse of the Bretton Woods currency system, the dollar made up almost 80% of global foreign-exchange reserves (in 1970 it totaled 77.2%, and in 1972 – 78.6%).

Then, after the transition to the system negotiated at the 1976 Jamaica Conference, that percentage gradually declined, reaching its lowest level – 59.0% – in 1995.

In the wake of financial globalization, the dollar’s positions strengthened again (reaching 70-71% between 1999 and 2001), but then a new decline was seen in the dollar component of global foreign-exchange reserves – dropping below 61% in 2014. Nevertheless, it is still higher than in 1995.

According to the Bank for International Settlements, in April 2010, 84.9% of global foreign-exchange market transactions were carried out in dollars, a figure that had increased to 87% by April 2013.

For comparison, the percentage of those transactions conducted in euros during that same period fell from 39.1 to 33.4%. The discrepancy between the positions of the dollar in world finance vs. the US positions in the global economy cannot be overlooked.

The US share of world GDP is currently about 20%. China has already surpassed America in terms of GDP (based on the purchasing power parity of the currency), but in the global currency market, only 2.2% of transactions were carried out in yuan in April 2013.

There is no accurate data regarding how much of the world’s foreign-exchange reserves are held in yuan, but experts estimate that it is not much higher than 1%.

These disparities are quite reminiscent of the global economic panorama of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. In those days the world’s economic leaders were being reshuffled.

The United States was in first place due to the volume of its industrial and agricultural output. Germany was moving into second place in some categories. And Great Britain, which for most of the nineteenth century had been considered «the world’s factory», had begun to slide into third place.

Complete story at - The 4th Media » War and Dollar: To Protect US Dollar, The FRB, US Bankers Prepare for a Major War

Kiev Planning Full-Scale War on Donbas

What's ongoing should scare everyone. State-sponsored terror threatens Europe.

Initiated post-Paris killings. On the pretext of fighting nonexistent homegrown terrorism. At the same time, MSM ignore Kiev's ceasefire hoax.

Ongoing dirty war rages in Europe's heartland. Donbas residents attacked. Civilian neighborhoods shelled. Killing defenseless men, women and children in cold blood.

Kiev continues mobilizing for escalated conflict. On January 16, Itar Tass headlined "New spate of drafting to Ukrainian Armed Forces (for) full-scale war in Europe."

Saying increased mobilization "testifies to Kiev’s plans to suppress resistance in the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics by force."

According to Academy of Geopolitical Problems president Konstantin Sivkov:

"Yet another drafting to the Armed Forces declared in Ukraine now proves that all the talking about willingness for peace in the southeast of the country on the part of president Petro Poroshenko is little more than a cover-up aimed at getting a pause prior to a major offensive on the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics."

"At present, the Ukrainian Army doesn't have enough manpower or resources to guarantee victory over the self-defense forces but Poroshenko obviously hopes to accumulate enough strength and to destroy the rebellious republics by spring."

Unanimously passed US Ukraine Freedom Support Act (UFSA) of 2014 authorizes lethal and non-lethal aid.

Besides what Washington already supplies. Covertly since conflict began. Including stingers, anti-tank missiles, anti-armor weapons and other heavy weapons.

Britain supplies weapons and munitions. So do other NATO countries. According to Sivkov:

"There’s hardly any doubt as regards Kiev's craving to regain control over Donbas through the use of arms, since the region concentrates the biggest manufacturing potential and natural resources - mostly coal - found in Ukraine."

"…Donbas and Novorossia…make up a buffer zone between Russia and Ukraine, while the American masters of the incumbent Kiev rulers need to eliminate that buffer zone by fair means and foul and to turn it into a springboard for destabilizing Russia."

"These plans of the Kiev government, which is drawing on Washington's support, (involve) full-scale war in the center of Europe."

Complete story at - Kiev Planning Full-Scale War on Donbas