Monday, April 27, 2015

Ukrainian analysis by the Saker: no hope for peace left | The Vineyard of the Saker


There is very little doubt left in anybody’s mind that the junta will resume a full-scale attack on Novorussia. Likewise, it appears that any hopes for a weakening of the US and/or European support for the Nazi junta are now dead. If the long string of murders of political opponents including a well-known and iconic figure like Oles Buzina shocked *nobody* (least of all the millions of European “Charlies”!) then probably nothing will. Furthermore, there are no signs of another “Maidan” which could topple the junta. Yes, there are protests here and there, but nothing which could seriously threaten the regime. To the contrary, all the signs are indicating that the US is holding the Ukraine in a very firm grip and that the predictable US plan is to restart a full scale war between the Nazi-occupied Ukraine and Novorussia with the option to involve Russia (which has been the plan all along).

The regime is clearly “going for broke” and not even pretending to solve any of the innumerable problems of Nazi-occupied Ukraine. Both Poroshenko and the Ukie Rada, apparently, are spending all their time and efforts into further provoking Russia, by seriously discussing a law to nationalize all Russian assets in the Ukraine, re-writing history books, adopting resolutions saying that Russia has invaded the Ukraine, etc. Nazi death squads, now trained by the USA, are now supposedly crucifying and burning “separatists” alive, while the US Gauleiter in Kiev tweets photos of Russian air defense system taking in Moscow in 2013, as proof of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine.

In the meantime, the US is doing exactly what it always does: it sends in US forces to train local death squads while building a “coalition of the willing” (US+UK+Canada+Poland), to do with no form of mandate or permission, that which it could not get approved legally (by the UN or even by NATO!). It appears that the debate inside the US “deep state” about the risks of the current strategy is over and that the Neocons have prevailed.

In practical terms this means that we are back to “square 1″: the question is now “can Novorussia withstand the Nazi onslaught alone with only the help of the “Voentorg” and “Northern Wind” or will Russia be forced to intervene?”

Honestly? I don’t know. And neither does anybody else.

By all accounts, the junta forces have become better but so have the Novorussians. Zakharchenko has announced that the recent voluntary mobilization was successful at 110% of the expected, which sounds very good, in particular with only volunteers, but it does not really tell us if Novorussia will have the 100’000 men under arms, by June, as was promised by the same Zakharchenko. Also, there appears to be a lack of equipment for such a large force, but then again, judging by what happened earlier this winter, we can expect the Russian Voentorg to fully open it’s spigot, as soon as the Russian intelligence services conclude that an Nazi attack is inevitable.

Complete story at - Ukrainian analysis by the Saker: no hope for peace left | The Vineyard of the Saker

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