Ok. Today I am going to address the nuclear threat canard one last time. After that, I will just ignore this topic which, frankly, is a waste of time. Here are two comments which were recently posted on the blog:
The state of disrepair of the Russian nuclear forces
This is an old canard which really had it's days of glory during the Eltsin years when, indeed, so much stuff in Russia was in an advanced state of disrepair that it sounded very plausible. The Air Force was in disrepair, the Navy was in disrepair, the Land Forces were in disrepair and, frankly, all of Russia was in a total disrepair. I even had Russian friends who were telling me that if Eltsin pressed on the button all the Russian ICBMs would basically explode in their silos (mind you, friends with PhDs in physics!). It was all nonsense. How do we know it?
Because during the 1990s and later Russia often fired missile which had reached the end of their life cycle, that was a part of the normal readiness test program. In one case a submerged Russian nuclear submarine even ripple-fired its full complement of missiles (I forgot the date, but it's on YouTube - I am sure somebody can post the link to that test). As far as I know, this is the only case in history of a "boomer" firing its full load of missiles in one volley (correct me if I am wrong). Every single time the missiles worked. As far as I know (again, correct me if I am wrong) the only failed launches were during the testing of the new "Bulava" SLBM which was a real pain to develop and which had to be redesigned several times. By the way, now the system works and, for all their efforts and pain, the Russians now have the newest and most advanced SLBM on the planet. So why did these systems work so well?
Two things: the extraordinary quality of the Soviet engineers and the very rigorous quality control system of the Soviet nuclear forces. I cannot go in detail here, but the fact is that the folks who worked on these systems were in a different league all together and even during the Eltins years they managed to keep the Russian nuclear weapons in working condition. The Russian deterrence system was also in total disarray - the early warning radars were gone to the newly independent Republics, the early warning satellites were reaching the end of their lives and no new ones were sent up, the Russian military secrets were exported to the USA by the ton - and yet even in these horrible circumstances the Russians never let their weapon of last resort (intercontinental nukes) go offline. Even at the peak of the "democratic horror" of Eltsin and his oligarchs, the US knew that Russia could - and would - strike back if attacked.
Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Why the US-Russian nuclear balance is as solid as ever
- "Security experts in the U.S. do not agree that Russia has a credible nuclear deterrent. The story is that the Russian nuclear force is in disrepair and that the U.S. can easily destroy most of what is left. They may be wrong--but that's what seems to be the thinking by at least some officials. "
- "How exactly do YOU know that the US military knows that a successful nuclear first strike against Russia is impossible? So far, Saker, you have basically merely claimed this without providing any serious evidence whatsoever."
The state of disrepair of the Russian nuclear forces
This is an old canard which really had it's days of glory during the Eltsin years when, indeed, so much stuff in Russia was in an advanced state of disrepair that it sounded very plausible. The Air Force was in disrepair, the Navy was in disrepair, the Land Forces were in disrepair and, frankly, all of Russia was in a total disrepair. I even had Russian friends who were telling me that if Eltsin pressed on the button all the Russian ICBMs would basically explode in their silos (mind you, friends with PhDs in physics!). It was all nonsense. How do we know it?
Because during the 1990s and later Russia often fired missile which had reached the end of their life cycle, that was a part of the normal readiness test program. In one case a submerged Russian nuclear submarine even ripple-fired its full complement of missiles (I forgot the date, but it's on YouTube - I am sure somebody can post the link to that test). As far as I know, this is the only case in history of a "boomer" firing its full load of missiles in one volley (correct me if I am wrong). Every single time the missiles worked. As far as I know (again, correct me if I am wrong) the only failed launches were during the testing of the new "Bulava" SLBM which was a real pain to develop and which had to be redesigned several times. By the way, now the system works and, for all their efforts and pain, the Russians now have the newest and most advanced SLBM on the planet. So why did these systems work so well?
Two things: the extraordinary quality of the Soviet engineers and the very rigorous quality control system of the Soviet nuclear forces. I cannot go in detail here, but the fact is that the folks who worked on these systems were in a different league all together and even during the Eltins years they managed to keep the Russian nuclear weapons in working condition. The Russian deterrence system was also in total disarray - the early warning radars were gone to the newly independent Republics, the early warning satellites were reaching the end of their lives and no new ones were sent up, the Russian military secrets were exported to the USA by the ton - and yet even in these horrible circumstances the Russians never let their weapon of last resort (intercontinental nukes) go offline. Even at the peak of the "democratic horror" of Eltsin and his oligarchs, the US knew that Russia could - and would - strike back if attacked.
Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Why the US-Russian nuclear balance is as solid as ever
No comments:
Post a Comment
All comments subject to moderation.