I have been trying to wait as long as possible to get some facts confirmed, but at this point in time I am confident enough to say that there are numerous and convergent signs that things are going extremely badly for the Kiev junta. Just look at the following recent headlines:
Concerning Debaltsevo and the rumors that the Junta forces were encircled in another "cauldron", they are probably a little premature. However, even if the Junta forces have not been fully encircled *yet*, there is strong evidence that they are indeed in the process of being encircled and many reports even speak of panic. However, the Junta has kept numerically large forces north of Donetsk and we should not dismiss them. By all accounts, the Junta forces are trying hard to break the Novorussian noose around Debaltsevo and they are also trying to recapture the Donetsk airport.
I am generally weary of triumphalism and I always get nervous when I see somebody underestimating the enemy. Most importantly, we should remember that while the Junta seems to be suffering major military losses, it still has two options available a false flag operation and declare war with Russia.
Option one: false flag
The worse the Junta's military defeats, the higher the risk of a major false flag. Keep in mind that the Nazi Junta despises the east Ukrainian which it considers as "bugs", "insects" and "subhumans" which should be barbecued and that it will have no pity for its own forces if they are defeated or, worse, disloyal. And remember the Nazi slogan about Crimea: "the Crimea will be Ukrainian or empty". We have to assume that the Nazi freaks in Kiev are capable of anything and, having already shot down a civilian airliner, I would not put it past them to sabotage a nuclear plant or some other very high risk target.
Option two: declare with with Russia
Notice, I did not say war "on Russia" because that would make the Junta the aggressor. But the Rada is quite capable tomorrow of declaring Russia an "aggressor state". And if that is not enough, Kiev is absolutely capable of striking (at least a few times) anywhere along the Russian-Ukrainian border (including in Crimea) in order to pull Russia in. Even if Russia does not take the bait and simply rides out the strikes, or if Russia responds with a very minimal amount of force, Kiev will continue to declare the "thousands" of Russian troops have invaded and that Russian "tactical battalion groups" are operating all along the line of contact. There is no way that Kiev will ever admit that its forces have been defeated by local Novorussian resistance fighters. In other words, any defeat of the Junta forces will always be presented as a "Russian aggression against the European choice of the free Ukrainian nation".
Folks like Yatseniuk or Turchinov will never just flee like Yanukovich did - before they do that, they will make darn sure to destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible and that happens to be exactly the US plan to: if Uncle Sam cannot have it, neither will anybody else.
Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP 26th January
Kiev urgently summons NATO-Ukraine meeting in BrusselsClearly, things are not going well *at all* for the Junta.
Junta officers get the right to shoot their man in case of insubordination
Kiev introduces state of emergency in Donbass, high alert across Ukraine
Resistance to New Wave of Ukraine Mobilization Has Already Begun
Panic in Kiev: Ukrainian forces surrender Donbass
Concerning Debaltsevo and the rumors that the Junta forces were encircled in another "cauldron", they are probably a little premature. However, even if the Junta forces have not been fully encircled *yet*, there is strong evidence that they are indeed in the process of being encircled and many reports even speak of panic. However, the Junta has kept numerically large forces north of Donetsk and we should not dismiss them. By all accounts, the Junta forces are trying hard to break the Novorussian noose around Debaltsevo and they are also trying to recapture the Donetsk airport.
I am generally weary of triumphalism and I always get nervous when I see somebody underestimating the enemy. Most importantly, we should remember that while the Junta seems to be suffering major military losses, it still has two options available a false flag operation and declare war with Russia.
Option one: false flag
The worse the Junta's military defeats, the higher the risk of a major false flag. Keep in mind that the Nazi Junta despises the east Ukrainian which it considers as "bugs", "insects" and "subhumans" which should be barbecued and that it will have no pity for its own forces if they are defeated or, worse, disloyal. And remember the Nazi slogan about Crimea: "the Crimea will be Ukrainian or empty". We have to assume that the Nazi freaks in Kiev are capable of anything and, having already shot down a civilian airliner, I would not put it past them to sabotage a nuclear plant or some other very high risk target.
Option two: declare with with Russia
Notice, I did not say war "on Russia" because that would make the Junta the aggressor. But the Rada is quite capable tomorrow of declaring Russia an "aggressor state". And if that is not enough, Kiev is absolutely capable of striking (at least a few times) anywhere along the Russian-Ukrainian border (including in Crimea) in order to pull Russia in. Even if Russia does not take the bait and simply rides out the strikes, or if Russia responds with a very minimal amount of force, Kiev will continue to declare the "thousands" of Russian troops have invaded and that Russian "tactical battalion groups" are operating all along the line of contact. There is no way that Kiev will ever admit that its forces have been defeated by local Novorussian resistance fighters. In other words, any defeat of the Junta forces will always be presented as a "Russian aggression against the European choice of the free Ukrainian nation".
Folks like Yatseniuk or Turchinov will never just flee like Yanukovich did - before they do that, they will make darn sure to destroy as much of the Ukraine as possible and that happens to be exactly the US plan to: if Uncle Sam cannot have it, neither will anybody else.
Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP 26th January
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