Tuesday, September 23, 2014

The Vineyard of the Saker: Strelkov: from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White sharks


Yesterday's press conference by Strelkov is, I believe, a historical moment because it marks the move of Strelkov from the Novorussian military struggle into the much larger, and far more dangerous struggle, the struggle for the political future of Russia. This in itself is no necessarily unexpected, but the way he did it was a surprise, at least for me. But before I zoom out to the bigger picture, I think that it would be helpful to try to summarize some of the key points of his presentation (thanks to Marina, you can download the full English transcript by clicking here and the Q&A is here). Here is how I summarized what I saw as the key elements of his presentation:

External factors (staging) - symbolic message:

He is clearly alive and well
The reason for his departure was infighting inside the Novorussian leadership and the fact that he was told that supplies would only be delivered if he left.
The photo of Putin in the back on the wall
He is sitting behind a Russian monarchist flag on the table (and a Russian and Novorussian flag in the back (no Soviet or Communists symbols)
His view about the ceasefire agreement:
This ceasefire has now created military situation is now worse than this spring
What is disgraceful is not the ceasefire by itself but "the conditions which are now being discussed in Minsk"
There is plan to blame the betrayal of Novorussia on Putin
There are powerful interests which want a never ending war which would create a bleeding ulcer for Russia

His description of the 5th column:

The roots of this 5th column go back to the Eltsin years
The liberation of Crimea took the 5th column by surprise
The 5th column is around President
There is a local 5th column in Donbass which has been and still is negotiating with Ukie oligarchs
The 5th column is composed of "liberals"
Putin is a moral threat to them because he has massive popular support
They want to overthrow Putin
They want to dismember Russia
This will be a long war on Russia
We are dealing with another 1905 and 1917 like situation
By saving Novorussia Russia can save itself
Western sanctions will hurt Russia and they will use them to discredit Putin

Strelkov's plans

Strelkov wants to fight inside Russia in support of Putin (only option)
Strelkov's main objective is to denounce the real traitors inside Russia
This is my personal rendition of the key elements of Strelkov's presentation, and I might have missed or misunderstood something, so I therefore encourage everybody to watch to the video again and read the transcript.


Before going further into my analysis of Strelkov's statements, I think that it is crucial to keep the bigger context in mind. His words are not just the words of a man speaking for the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF) or a Novorussia hero, this time Strelkov is diving straight into the big and dangerous world of Russian "deep state" politics (though the term "deep state" does not really apply to Russia). So I will now return to a topic I have been covering for many years now.

Long-time readers will probably recall that I often spoke of a behind-the-scenes struggle between what I called the "Eurasian Sovereignists" (ES) and the "Atlantic Integrationists" (AI). I will not repeat it all here, but I do encourage you to read the following articles:


The two first articles are part of a much longer seven-part series on Islam, but they introduce the historical context of the development of the ES and AI factions. The next two I would consider mandatory reading if you are not familiar with the topic and the last one is just a more recent discussion of the role of these two factions in the current Cold War v2. Having said that, my key thesis is this:

Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Strelkov: from swimming with Piranhas to swimming with Great White sharks

CC Photo Google Image Search Source is europeanul org  Subject is Igor Strelkov RTV

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