The contest for eastern Ukraine may not be over, but when Ukraine's president, Petro Poroshenko, described the recapture of Sloviansk at the weekend as of "huge symbolic importance", he was not exaggerating. Other towns and cities remain in rebel hands, including the million-strong conurbation of Donetsk, but Sloviansk was the rebels' military headquarters. The hoisting of Ukraine's flag over the city hall marks a decisive advance for the government in the government in Kiev.
Which should raise a question: where are the Russians? If President Vladimir Putin was so intent on re-establishing Moscow's influence over Ukraine, if he was so determined to preserve Russia's fraternal ties with these fellow Slavs, if his ultimate objective was the reconstitution of empire, then why has he not rushed to the aid of those fighting, and dying, in Donetsk and Sloviansk?
Why have we heard nothing from Nato about Russian troops threateningly close to Ukraine's eastern border? Why no satellite pictures on our news bulletins of "clearly" Russian tanks rolling into east Ukrainian towns? Why no warnings recently from Washington or London about the dire consequences, should Moscow follow its annexation of Crimea by occupying eastern Ukraine?
Could this just be because the Russian aggression forecast so confidently in much of the western world is not actually happening? And if not, why not? There is an obvious answer to this, and a less obvious one. The obvious answer is that western sanctions against named Russian individuals, combined with market jitters about doing business with Russia, have had their effect. "We" have successfully stood up to a bully and faced him down; force has been met with a sufficient threat of force. Old-style containment, give or take the small detail of Crimea, has done its job. Russia has done the sums and seen sense.
But there could be another explanation for Russia's non-intervention in eastern Ukraine, which is that the widely accepted view of Putin's aggressive intentions was actually wrong. This other narrative fits the facts of the past five months just as well as Putin's presumed desire to act on his post-Soviet nostalgia.
Complete story at - Fear, not ambition, is what fuels Moscow in Ukraine | Mary Dejevsky | Comment is free | The Guardian
Which should raise a question: where are the Russians? If President Vladimir Putin was so intent on re-establishing Moscow's influence over Ukraine, if he was so determined to preserve Russia's fraternal ties with these fellow Slavs, if his ultimate objective was the reconstitution of empire, then why has he not rushed to the aid of those fighting, and dying, in Donetsk and Sloviansk?
Why have we heard nothing from Nato about Russian troops threateningly close to Ukraine's eastern border? Why no satellite pictures on our news bulletins of "clearly" Russian tanks rolling into east Ukrainian towns? Why no warnings recently from Washington or London about the dire consequences, should Moscow follow its annexation of Crimea by occupying eastern Ukraine?
Could this just be because the Russian aggression forecast so confidently in much of the western world is not actually happening? And if not, why not? There is an obvious answer to this, and a less obvious one. The obvious answer is that western sanctions against named Russian individuals, combined with market jitters about doing business with Russia, have had their effect. "We" have successfully stood up to a bully and faced him down; force has been met with a sufficient threat of force. Old-style containment, give or take the small detail of Crimea, has done its job. Russia has done the sums and seen sense.
But there could be another explanation for Russia's non-intervention in eastern Ukraine, which is that the widely accepted view of Putin's aggressive intentions was actually wrong. This other narrative fits the facts of the past five months just as well as Putin's presumed desire to act on his post-Soviet nostalgia.
Complete story at - Fear, not ambition, is what fuels Moscow in Ukraine | Mary Dejevsky | Comment is free | The Guardian
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