The Arithmetics of Diplomatic Theatre | SLAVYANGRAD.org

It is impossible to prove or disprove the existence of the divine plan. Russia’s cunning plan in Ukraine belongs to the same category. In analyzing the statements made by Sergei Lavrov in his interview with Russia Beyond the Headlines on September 17, 2014, some commentators have added a third concept—that of diplomatic theatre—to this duality. While it is generally bad form to overanalyze religious beliefs, let us apply some simple mathematics to understand the play behind the curtains of diplomatic theatre.

The concept of diplomatic theatre is understood differently by commentators. Many of the definitions are clearly wrong. Diplomatic theatre is not magic, mysticism, or sleight of hand. The language of diplomacy is far more akin to mathematics than commonly understood. As in mathematics, every word has its place, and no phrase is spoken out of context or frivolously.

The product of a diplomatic equation is directly dependent on the placement of definitions in a string of calculated statements. Like legal language, diplomatic language can be deciphered, broken down into components, and analyzed with precision. To a keen observer, there is nothing mysterious in what diplomats say. Bad diplomacy, on the other hand, is the opposite of this approach. And Lavrov is an excellent diplomat. Accordingly, let us parse out the meaning of Lavrov’s interview without resorting to magic or belief in the guiding hand that can do no wrong.

Setting Out the Equation

Lavrov’s interview contains a wealth of statements with respect to the crisis in Ukraine. Many of them have been made before—Russia’s steadfast commitment to investigating the Odessa massacre, the crash of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing MH17, and the war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed by the Ukrainian troops in Donbass. All of these remarks are laudable, praiseworthy and notable in and of themselves.

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The Vineyard of the Saker: Listening to Lavrov giving up on the West

Yesterday, I watched with interest a talkshow called "The Right to Know" which featured an hour long interview with Sergei Lavrov (those who understand Russian can watch it here). It was an interesting exchange between Lavrov and five Russian reporters. It was not important enough to warrant translating it all into English, but I want to share with you something which I had noticed in the past but which was powerfully expressed during this conversation.

Predictably, the topics included the civil war in the Ukraine, the status of the investigation about the shooting down of MH17, sanctions against Russia, the expansion of NATO, the negotiations in Minsk and Russia's engagement with the BRICS countries.

All all these topics, the Q&A had a similar format. One of the reporters asked Lavrov to comment on what appeared to be a dead-end situation and Lavrov confirmed saying "we tried our best, but to our great regret, that had no effect". What was so interesting is that while the reporters were expressing bafflement that things had gone so far, Lavrov's reaction was "yes, you are right, this is truly hopeless". The overall effect was one of a PTA meeting discussing some hopelessly stupid and incapable student. Except the "student" in this case was the entire West.

For example, about MH17 the reporters voiced their amazement at the sterility and vagueness of the recently released report. They noticed that while the entire western media went into a full hysteria mode with headlines like "PUTIN THE TERRORIST!!!!" or "ENOUGH IS ENOUGH!!!" they all apparently totally forgot that the investigation was still ongoing. Lavrov's reaction was "yes, I agree, well, we tried at the UN Security Council, we submitted our questions, we wanted a full ceasefire with a thorough investigation of the debris, we offered our own information, we spoke to the Malaysians, we wanted to speak to the experts, but they spent three weeks in Kiev talking to the Junta officials,, we still have questions but we are the only ones who apparently are still interested in getting a full transparent and accountable investigation going" (this is no a quote, but a faithful paraphrase, I think). The sense one got from listening to this was "frankly, they are hopeless, what else can we do?"

Touching upon the sanctions, the reporters said that many countries were surprised at the speed at which Russia turned away from the West and began building relations with Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Indian Subcontinent and, again, Lavrov replied "yes, we were even surprised by the pace of events ourselves, but we had no choice".

This is not the only show which sends the same message. The sense that I am getting is that Russia has given up on the West. Sure, she will continue talking, and she will try, against all evidence, to elicit some adult responsible behavior from western politicians, but nobody in Russia is holding his/her breath.

Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Listening to Lavrov giving up on the West