RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP » American University in Moscow

RUSSIA HAS HAD ENOUGH. I agree, as I usually do, with Alexander Mercouris: here and here he argues that Putin and his team have given up trying for a diplomatic solution. Moscow used its influence to stop the rebels' offensive last year when they believed themselves on the edge of routing the Kiev forces, forced the Minsk ceasefire, made several proposals to Kiev and... nothing. I believe that Putin stopped believing anything the West said after Libya, but I think he kept hoping Europe would not be willing to harm itself in subjugation to Washington. Or maybe he just needed time; time to strengthen links with the BRICS and especially Beijing, time to de-dollarise (Russia is buying a lot of gold), time to build up and exercise the military; time to make his case to the "not-the-world” (I love this cartoon). I'm sure he has the next move figured out and I'm equally sure Brussels, Washington and their dependants will be just as stunned by it as they were the last times.

RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Two takes on it that argue that the situation is serious but recoverable:Goldman Sachs repeats points I have mentioned; Chris Weafer says rally but not boom. Yes inflation is up, yes the Ruble is down, but there much import substitute is going on, industrial and agricultural production continue to rise and unemployment is unchanged. As for rating downgrades,China has a different opinion. Time, as they say, will tell. But I'd bet on China.

DEMOGRAPHICS. Excellent summary by Anatoly Karlin. By the way, Russia now has a higher crude birth rate than anywhere in Europe.

GAS. After welcoming the decision to stop South Stream, the Europeans are starting to realise that they had better build some infrastructure to pick up Russian gas. Nordstream too. Or do without. Or find another supplier. Or something. They've got about four years. Here's the new reality.

FIGHTING. Putin made a last appeal for both sides to withdraw following the Minsk agreements but Kiev attacked. The "cyborgs” were driven out of the airport (your local media outlets took a week or so to tell you: here's The Guardian saying the Kiev forces had re-taken the airport. They didn't; cancel your subscription.) Another "cauldron” is forming and the neo-nazis are saying all is lost. What's their answer: coup or götterdämmerung?

HOW TO READ THE WESTERN MEDIA. When they say Kiev forces have re-taken the airport, know that they have lost it. When they say giving up South Stream was a defeat for Putin, know it was a brilliant counter-move. When they say Russia is isolated (a stopped clock, here's The Economist in 1999!), know that it is expanding its influence and connections every day. When they say Russians are turning against Putin, know that the opposite is true. When they speak of nation-building in the new Ukraine, know it's degenerating into armed thuggery (see video). Know that when they speak of Kyrzbekistan, they're not just stenographers, they're incompetent stenographers. Take what they say, turn it upside down, and you'll have a better take on reality.

Complete story at - RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP » American University in Moscow

Despite western propaganda, Russia is not in economic crisis -- Sott.net

Capital outflow crisis does not exist. Companies are solvent and in the process of repaying debt. Contrary to doom-mongering from outside the country, in Russia there is perfect calm

Following the prophecies of doom that were going the rounds in December the rouble appears to have stabilised, the Central Bank's reserves are intact and the government looks calm and in control.

This appearance of calm appears to have annoyed some of the government's Western critics.

The economist Anders Aslund sees it as evidence that "Putin is in denial".

Most remarkably, the Economist sees the government's "Zen-like calm" as "proof" "the economic crisis has officially arrived".

This rather begs the question of what the Economist would make of signs of panic. Would that be proof the crisis is officially over?

Nobody denies Russia faces a difficult year. The sanctions are obliging Russian companies to pay off their foreign debts at the same time as the dollar price of oil - Russia's main export commodity - has halved, making repayment more difficult.

The rouble as a result has come under serious pressure and has halved in value. Investment and spending as a result are being cut back.

The rouble's fall is causing inflation this year to be significantly higher than it has been over the last few years or that the authorities had planned for. This in turn will cause real incomes to drop.

Complete story at - Despite western propaganda, Russia is not in economic crisis -- Puppet Masters -- Sott.net

2014: The Year Propaganda Came Of Age - The Automatic Earth

From just about as early in my life as I can remember, growing up as a child in Holland, there were stories about World War II, and not just about Anne Frank and the huge amounts of people who, like her, had been dragged off to camps in eastern Europe never to come back, but also about the thousands who had risked their lives to hide Jewish and other refugees, and the scores who had been executed for doing so, often betrayed by their own neighbors.

And then there were those who had risked their lives in equally courageous ways to get news out to people, putting out newspapers and radio broadcasts just so there would be a version of events out there that was real, and not just what the Germans wanted one to believe. This happened in all Nazi – and Nazi friendly – occupied European nations. The courage of these people is hard to gauge for us today, and I’m convinced there’s no way to say whom amongst us would show that kind of bravery if we were put to the test; I certainly wouldn’t be sure about myself.

Still, without wanting to put myself anywhere near the level of those very very real heroes, please don’t get me wrong about that, that’s not what I mean, I was thinking about them with regards to what is happening in our media today. I’ve mentioned before that I don’t think Joseph Goebbels had anything on US and European media today.

That propaganda as a strategic and political instrument has been refined to a huge extent over the past 70-odd years since Goebbels first picked up on Freud’s lessons on how to influence the unconscious mind, and the ‘mass-mind’, as a way to ‘steer’ an entire people, not just as a means to make them buy detergent. These days, the media can make people believe just about anything, and they have the added benefit that they can pose as friends of the people, not the enemy.

But there is a reason why such a large ‘industry’ has developed on the web with people writing articles that don’t say what the mass media say. That reason for is, obviously, first and foremost that not everybody believes whatever they are told. The problem is equally obvious: not nearly enough people are being reached to make a true difference, and to question the official narratives.

Me, I have no claim to fame outside of the appreciation I get from first, my readers and second, from my colleagues and peers. I get a lot of both, and I thank you for that, but this certainly is not about me. If anything, it’s about trying to live up to the desire for truth in the face of odds squarely stacked against it, and against the people I try to reach out to. Trying to do just 0.1% of what the WWII underground press was about.

A few days ago, I wrote in About That Interview :

The FBI claims they are certain the hackers are North Korean, but they have provided no proof of that claim. We have to trust them on their beautiful blue eyes. I think if anything defines 2014 for me, it’s the advent of incessant claims for which no proof – apparently – needs to be provided. Everything related to Ukraine over the past year carries that trait. The year of ‘beautiful blue eyes’, in other words. Never no proof, you just have to believe what your government says.

And that truly defines 2014 for me. A level of propaganda I don’t recognize, and I don’t think I’ve ever seen before. 2014 has for me been the year of utter nonsense. To wit, it just finished in fine form with a 5% US GDP growth number, just to name one example. Really, guys? 5%? Really? With all the numbers presented lately, the negative Thanksgiving sales data – minus 11% from what I remember -, the so-so at best Christmas store numbers to date, shrinking durable goods in November and all? Plus 5%?

Complete story at - 2014: The Year Propaganda Came Of Age - The Automatic Earth

Ukraine Currency Crashes After Senior EU Official Says "The Ukrainians Are Manipulating Us" | Zero Hedge

The much discussed tumble in the Russian ruble (or as Japan would call it "mission accomplished" if its was the Yen instead of the Ruble) may have stabilized somewhat, and judging by the Russian central bank's response to no longer intervene in the FX corridor-setting market on a daily basis, Russia is hardly too concerned by the impact to the economy as a result of the beating its currency has taken, but where Putin may have brushed off the "speculative" attack on its currency for the time being, things for Russia's western adversary, the Ukraine - the country whose economy is in a state of near terminal collapse and which unlike Russia doesn't have massive raw materials to fall back on - are just starting to go bump in the night.

As has been the case for nearly a year, the Ukraine has been on life support by its "western allies" ever since the Victoria Nuland/US State Department/CIA catalyzed coup early in the year. The problem is that those same "allies" now look like they have had enough of their "alliance" and are about to pull the "blank check" rug.

According to Reuters, nearly a year on from the first "EuroMaidan" protests that would topple the pro-Moscow president who had spurned an EU trade deal, some in Brussels are disillusioned by the experience of helping Ukraine. EU generosity in waiving import duties and funding gas supplies from Russia may be being abused, they say.

Corruption in Ukraine? Unpossible. But wait, it gets better:

Some in Ukraine's elite may be colluding with Russia, even as fighting in the east has begun to escalate again.
If true, this will be the biggest stunt a Russian leader has pulled since Khruschev banging on the desk in the UN with his shoe.

And the punchline:

"The Ukrainians are manipulating the EU," a senior EU official involved in negotiations told Reuters, saying the bloc was "waking up" to a need to better defend its own interests.
You mean those poor European taxpayers, raped for years to bail out insolvent Eurozone nations because, you know, "political capital", are now directly and indirectly funding Putin's extravagant habits?

Brilliant.

Complete story at - Ukraine Currency Crashes After Senior EU Official Says "The Ukrainians Are Manipulating Us" | Zero Hedge

If Everything Is Just Fine, Why Are So Many Really Smart People Forecasting Economic Disaster? Washington's Blog

The parallels between the false prosperity of 2007 and the false prosperity of 2014 are rather striking. If we go back and look at the numbers in the fall of 2007, we find that the Dow set an all-time high in October, margin debt on Wall Street had spiked to record levels, the unemployment rate was below 5 percent and Americans were getting ready to spend a record amount of money that Christmas season. But then the very next year the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression shook the entire planet and everyone wondered why most people never saw it coming. Well, now a similar pattern is unfolding right before our eyes. The Dow and the S&P 500 both hit record highs on Monday, margin debt on Wall Street is hovering near record levels, the unemployment rate has ticked down a little bit and Americans are getting ready to spend more than 600 billion dollars this Christmas season. The truth is that the economy seems pretty stable for the moment, and most people cannot even imagine that an economic collapse is coming. So why are so many really smart people forecasting economic disaster in the near future?

For example, just consider what the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center is saying. This is an organization with a tremendous economic forecasting record that goes all the way back to the Great Depression. In fact, it predicted ahead of time the financial trouble and the recession that would happen in 2008. Well, now this company is forecasting that there is a 65 percent chance that there will be a global recession by the end of next year…

In 1929, a businessman and economist by the name of Jerome Levy didn’t like what he saw in his analysis of corporate profits. He sold his stocks before the October crash.

Almost eight decades later, the consultancy company that bears his name declared “the next recession will be caused by the deflating housing bubble.” By February 2007, it predicted problems in the subprime-mortgage market would spread “to virtually all financial markets.” In October 2007, it saw imminent recession — the slump began two months later.

The Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, based in Mount Kisco, New York, and run by Jerome’s grandson David, is again more worried than its peers. Its half-dozen analysts attach a 65 percent probability of a worldwide recession forcing a contraction in the U.S. by the end of next year.

Could they be wrong?

Complete story at - If Everything Is Just Fine, Why Are So Many Really Smart People Forecasting Economic Disaster? Washington's Blog

Meet 'Mr. Yuan': The Currency Trader Helping Russia Defy Western Sanctions - Russia Insider

By Evgenia Pismennaya

This article originally appeared on Bloomberg.

Vladimir Putin has a secret agent in his campaign to curb the impact of sanctions on Russia’s economy: Mr. Yuan.

That’s what skeptical bankers started calling Igor Marich after he introduced yuan trading in Moscow in 2010, when Russia became the first country outside China to offer regulated renminbi purchases. Now, as sanctions from the west over the conflict in Ukraine prompt more Russian companies to look east for growth, Mr. Yuan has become something of an honorific.

The yuan-ruble trade on the Moscow Exchange, where Marich runs money markets, has jumped 10-fold this year to $749 million in August, though still a sliver of the $367 billion in dollar-for-ruble sales. Yuan buying hit a then-peak of 666 million yuan ($109 million) on July 31, when the European Union penalized Russia’s largest banks,OAO Sberbank, VTB Group and OAO Gazprombank, over Putin’s support for Ukraine’s insurgency. With EU and U.S. sanctions in place and ties with China deepening, daily trading will soon reach 1 billion yuan, Marich said.

“I believe we can see this result within a year,” the 40-year-old sports enthusiast said in an interview at the exchange in central Moscow, where he started working in 2000, the same year Putin became president.

Marich’s goal may come sooner than he thinks. Russia is considering accepting yuan for gas under the $400 billion, 30-year supply deal that China signed during Putin’s visit to Beijing in May, according to four senior Russian officials and executives who asked not to be identified because a final decision hasn’t been made.

Complete story at - Meet 'Mr. Yuan': The Currency Trader Helping Russia Defy Western Sanctions - Russia Insider

Ukraine hikes key rate to highest level in decade - Yahoo News

Kiev (AFP) - Ukraine's central bank announced plans Wednesday to set its highest discount rate in more than a decade to rein in soaring inflation and calm investors who are taking their money abroad.

The surprise decision to raise the main lending rate to 12.5 percent from 9.5 percent effective Thursday comes just weeks after the economy skirted imminent bankruptcy thanks to the promise of immediate international aid.

But an escalating pro-Kremlin insurgency in Ukraine's economically vital eastern industrial basin appears to have to have scared Western investors and put pressure on the ex-Soviet country's currency.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) said consumer prices could grow by 17 percent on an annualised basis this year.

It noted that the rate had jumped to 12.0 percent in June from 0.5 percent in January -- a month before the ouster of a Moscow-backed leader prompted Russia's seizure of Crimea and encouraged the separatist revolt.

Complete story at - Ukraine hikes key rate to highest level in decade - Yahoo News

Meanwhile, back in Kiev, (and elsewhere in Ukraine) - Economics

by NoBC4U

Reports from various sources along with "man on the street" observations.

Sadly, in the last few weeks, there has been numerous stories about death and destruction in the east of Ukraine by the Ukrainian Army. Let's face it, death and destruction are compelling narratives. It has often been said about mainstream media, “If it bleeds, it leads".

In the face of the much more compelling narratives, there are other stories occurring behind the scenes. While these are certainly not nearly as compelling, this slow trickle of behind the scenes stories may in the long run be the decisive factor in the future of Ukraine.

So, let's take a look at some of these hidden stories.

Economic stories.

Utilities…

The highly touted rising gas prices I was supposed to take effect on May 1, did not occur on May 1. It instead happened on June 1. No surprise there. May 1 was before the presidential election. June 1 was after. You always hold off bad news until after an election. But the price hike was not the 50% that was often touted in the media. Instead, the price between May and June went up almost 63%. Being summertime, this only covers natural gas used in cooking. So for most people, this is not a big hit. But just wait till October when charges for heating start to appear on the bills. Of course, I’m certain that the junta hopes that the six-month period when no heat appears on the bills will not be noticed in October when the charge for heat returns. By then, I would not be surprised if the increase is even greater than 63%.

So then, why was the increase 63% instead of the 50% mentioned previously? Well, a 50% increase was based on an exchange rate of approximately 8.5 grivnas per dollar. Since the grivna has lost value, with our new exchange rate of 11.52 a dollar, this led to an even higher increase than stated. This is because gas is bought on the international market and must go through currency conversions. I guess the big question would be since Ukraine is not paying their gas bills, why do we have to pay anything? Oh yeah, that's right, there’s this little genocidal war going on.

The cold water rates have just risen, and man, is it a biggie. That’s up 133%! Electric is up too, but only 10%… so far. Bigger users of electricity might find their increase to be even larger.

Banking…

There have been some reports now that if you deposit money in a bank, you can expect to pay the Kiev authorities 15% up front, unless you can prove that the deposit did not come from under the table employment, or that taxes had already been paid. Somehow, I believe this will backfire and people who stash their cash in a mattress or a safe. I do remember in the past, when transferring money into the country for a purchase, that I had to declare that it did not come from employment. Now, they just take the money. Presumably there’s a way to get that money back if you’ve already paid your taxes.

Corporate Restructures…

In addition, certain companies are "restructuring" their operations here in Kiev. I have only come across a few examples so far, but that likely means that for every example I found, there were four or five or 20 others that I am not aware of.

First up is the company 4A Games. They recently announced they are moving their headquarters from Kiev to Cyprus. They did go out of their way to mention that programming and development teams will remain in Kiev. Yet, moving one's headquarters is not a sign of confidence in the local economy. And they stated the move was to be in closer proximity to their EU client base. I assume they’re not speaking about physical proximity, though.

EPAM systems are choosing to expand operations in Poland to mitigate the risks associated with Ukraine. And Luxoft holdings plans to move 500 programming staff out of both Ukraine and Russia because of the ongoing conflicts.

And GlobalLogic is setting up operations in Kosice Slovakia, 50 miles (80 km) from the Ukraine border. Close enough to numerous locations in Ukraine for a visit home once a month. An ideal location for a homesick Ukrainian programmer.

These companies are all software related. Programming and development positions represent some of the best paying positions for talented college graduates in all of Ukraine. Their immediate loss of some jobs and the loss of future jobs that might have been Ukraine-based will be a big hit for the future of the Ukraine economy. These current and future jobs are gone and will not be returning for a long time. Consequently, some of the best and the brightest, the future of Ukraine, will leave the country for opportunities elsewhere.

I guess it's actually justice in a way. Some companies that outsource IT work to Ukraine are PepsiCo, IBM, Ford, Chrysler, and Dell. While the US government will certainly not sanction the Nazi government here in Ukraine (preferring to sanction Russia instead), these major corporate outsourcers would prefer stability, and that is unlikely to return to Ukraine for very long time. So in effect, these companies are implementing the sanctions that the US government should, but will never do.

It is still too early to tell the effects this will have on my wife's business. She supplies medical services that, while provided by the government for free, are much more appealing and convenient for those who have the means. But it's likely that quite a few that have the means today will not have the means a couple of months from now. The business really slow down in the months of April and May, but have recently picked back up again, probably because enough people believe the election of a new president means a return to normalcy. But normalcy is a relative thing these days…

Refugees from the East.

I have heard several reports about refugees arriving in Kiev from the East. Some are no doubt professionals, competing for positions in an already depressed job market. Numerous others are at the lower end of the scale, looking for jobs as drivers and household help. Those who know some English will likely be better off; those that don't likely to end up very disappointed and unemployed for the long term. And government austerity is likely to hit those that are not employed immensely.

Weather related economic hits…

With cooler and wetter than normal weather in the central region this summer, a number of crops are likely to take major hits, even if the weather quickly returns to normal. A long-term area resident (70 years) doesn’t remember any summer quite like this one. Potatoes, one of the major staple foods, is likely to show a major decline. It’s important to remember that even with the loss of Crimea, Ukraine remains larger than the state of Texas, so in normal years this could be overcome. But with war out east, agricultural output in the east is down too.

Agricultural output in Crimea took a hit too because Ukraine cut off a major water supply route to Crimea. And it’s also likely that agricultural output of Crimea that in the past would have benefitted Ukraine will be used for Crimean and Russian needs first, including the 500,000 estimated refugees from the war in east Ukraine now living in Russia. Ukraine should probably not expect too much help on that front.

Other economic activity depressed.

During the so-called "revolution,” the overall economy if Ukraine didn't seem to be hit all that badly. But the month of April showed numerous large decreases in numerous sections of the economy. In the month of April alone, certain sectors showed drops in the range of 10 to 25% in one month! So it looks like Ukraine is going down, and it's going down hard.

Timothy Ash, writing in the Kyiv Post, says this about economic activity in Ukraine so far in 2014.

• "Herein, the overall production index dropped by 6.2 percent year-on-year in April, from the 3.4 percent drop in March, and within this chemical production dropped by 23.3 percent, engineering by 18.9 percent and metallurgy by 12.8 percent.
• This fits in with anecdotal reports of strikes/disruptions to various production facilities in Donetsk and Luhansk and also to transport services, particularly rail transport.
• Plants across Ukraine may now be struggling to receive parts from operations in Luhansk, Donetsk and even Crimea. A Kyiv Post report yesterday suggested significant problems emerging in the auto sector.
• All the above would tend to suggest a more precipitous fall in economic activity is under way – perhaps more in line with recent European Bank of Reconstruction and Development/Moody’s forecasts for a 7-7.4 percent real GDP decline this year.
• The latter, if delivered, would make adherence to IMF targets that much more difficult, and “recalibration” of the IMF programme that much more likely later this year."

Kiev Post Article

Needless to say, this is an enormous economic hit to the economy of Ukraine. And it is not one that Ukraine will soon recover from.

Stores closing.

So far, there have been a number of store closings on Khreschatyk, the main street of Kiev, and indeed, all of Ukraine. I’ve counted around 20 so far, but I have not visited a number of the side streets. First, a good portion of Khreschatyk is still closed to vehicular traffic and remains a tent city, mixed with a large dollop of circus freak show and hawkers of souvenirs weird and strange. So it's quite possible that it's no longer profitable to have a store on "Main Street". My guess is that retailers who have leases coming up for renewal are not renewing at this time and as time goes by, more retailers will join the act, either because of lack of faith in the economy or the hope that in a year or two or three, they may be able to return to a much lower lease and a much better economy. But most of these retailers have other locations throughout Kiev, so it’s not a mad dash for the exits yet. But the continued presence of the Maidan does not help; the Globus Mall, built under Independence Square had foot traffic, a few days ago, 70% less then I’ve ever seen it before, plus a number of empty storefronts, something I’ve never seen at this location.

Shortages:

While the price of a whole lot of items have increased, largely because of currency devaluation, most items are still available, at a price. Remember that currency devaluation mostly impacts imported goods. The major exception is a number of Russian made items, some because of trade sanctions, and some because the demand just isn’t there anymore. Others are a bit more worrying.

Salt (except for sea salt) basically disappeared from store shelves in Kiev for a few weeks. The reason? At least some of the salt in this part of the world comes from Slavyansk, until recently under control of the anti-fascist forces. And even more comes from Crimea.

Some medicines, especially those that are imported, can be in short supply. I’ve told my wife to always have at least a month’s supply of important medicines, which might have not been enough, since one of her medicines disappeared from shelves for a few weeks. It is now back, and we currently have a 3 month supply. But medicines, especially imported ones, will likely be in short supply because of the logistics of shipping into a dysfunctional country, along with price increases putting these medicines out of the reach of a good number of people.

Commentary:

Yet with all this, I'm still surprised at how little has changed. So far. Grass is still being cut, (some) road maintenance is still being done, the water fountains are dancing merrily as if it was still 2013. So, what might be the reason for this?

Since I'm reporting from a decent enough neighborhood, I first attributed it to city leadership keeping up a façade so that they could extract higher taxes later. But, it actually seems a bit more basic than this. And also a bit more obvious. It's so basic and so obvious I'm surprised it took me so long to see it, and am surprised it's taking other commentators so long to see it. Here's how I see it playing out.

First let's take a quick look at what the IMF actually does. What it does is it works with a government and together they declare war on the people of the target country. In simple terms, that's really what the IMF does. When the IMF rolls into a country, whether South Korea, Argentina, Russia, or any number of others, it sets up targets for economic reform that are most likely going to be difficult or impossible to achieve. Once compliance does not happen, they rape and pillage the economy, in line with the negotiated terms. Their stolen loot is then given away at a fire sale to those who can "better manage it". It's "steal from the 99%" and "give to the one percent". It's a class war where the 1% comes out on top, as they normally do.

Now in most IMF interventions, the IMF is the primary intervener., many times the only one. While there may be other social and political goals, the economic goals of the IMF reigns supreme. But is this the case in Ukraine? Looking more closely, it's clear that there are several other major players involved in the Ukraine fiasco. And these players have goals of their own. In the case of Ukraine, the primary intervener is not the IMF. That "honor" goes to the State Department and the CIA. From what we have seen so far in 2014, the goals of the State Department and the CIA will take priority over the goals of the IMF. So then, exactly what does this mean going forward for Ukraine?

The goals of the State Department and the CIA so far all clearly pointing to trying to provoke Russia to invade Ukraine. So far, they have not had a lot of success meeting this goal. But should they be able to provoke Russia to protect Russian people in the east of Ukraine, it will provoke a larger war, Russia on one hand, versus Ukraine and NATO on the other hand. A war of country versus country and its allies. Now, remember back a few paragraphs where we discussed the modus operandi of the IMF. With IMF's help, a government declares war on its people. The State Department and the CIA are attempting to provoke an international hot war involving Ukraine and Russia. Now, while it might be possible for a government to have both a war with a neighboring country and with its own people at the same time, I really don't believe you're going to see that here. The war that will be given priority will be the war with Russia, should that occur. Consequently, when support for the international war, the war with Russia, you will see programs implemented to build support for that war. Austerity will lead to a major lack of support for said international war, and will therefore be against the goals of the State Department and the CIA. So, will the IMF be left out in the cold, with the bill to be paid by NATO, EU, and USA tax payers? The IMF will no doubt still push through what it can, but if some action leads to major pushback by the citizenry, the IMF may possibly let Ukraine slide on a few. I say possibly because the government still has their means of enforcement, Right Sector.

So for Ukraine, it's the ultimate lose-lose situation. Should the state Department and CIA get their way, Ukraine will be ground zero for a major land war. If Russia should manage to tie their hands, and war is prevented, Ukraine will be socked by a major IMF austerity plan, made worse by the loss of Crimea and possibly other areas of Ukraine, and made even worse by the debts incurred trying to provoke said war, which will be thrown on the backs of those Ukrainians who stick around for the punishment.

Am I being a bit too optimistic here? Possible, but only time will tell. My guess is that the State Department and CIA goals will get first priority and if that means suspending some IMF goals to garner public support, that will happen. Anyway, that’s the way I see it now.

The Global Financial Tsunami End Game: The Petro-Dollar Regime is Finished? | Global Research

I have written many articles on the Petro-Dollar being the lynch-pin of the US Dollar fiat money system and that once trade in oil is no longer denominated in the US Dollar, the bells will toll for the demise of the US Dollar and the global fiat money system. The renowned financial analyst and author, James Rickards has written two best sellers, “The Currency Wars” and now his latest, “The Death of Money”. And in his recent interview by Max Keiser, he explained that during the Cold War, the “M.A.D. Doctrine” (Mutually Assured Destruction) prevented a nuclear war between the two superpowers, the Soviet Union and the US, as if one superpower were to launch a pre-emptive first strike, there would be enough nuclear missiles remaining in the targeted superpower to retaliate with an equally devastating Second Strike.

In the last few months, we have witnessed a variation of the nuclear M.A.D. Doctrine and for which I have been warning for as long as I can remember but my ringing of the alarm bells have fell on deaf ears.

The “Financial Nuclear Weapon” (the sale of oil in a currency other than the US dollar) which was previously deployed by Saddam Hussein resulted in the total destruction of Iraq, but it failed to deter other countries pissed off with the highhandedness of the Global Policeman.

Libya made another attempt and it resulted in the destruction of the country and the brutal murder of its leader Muammar Gaddafi. Next was Iran. The US and the global financial war party found it much more difficult to isolate and annihilate Iran, even when she was threatened with outright nuclear attack by US and the rabid Israel. And in spite of unprecedented sanctions against Iran (which constitute economic warfare and are war crimes in itself), Iran stood defiant.

The leading members of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) Russia and China restrained themselves so as to preserve global stability. However, the war party faction of the Obama regime (the leftovers of the Bush regime) took such restraint as weakness and went on a spree of regime change throughout the world to undermine the growing strength of BRICS.

Complete story at - The Global Financial Tsunami End Game: The Petro-Dollar Regime is Finished? | Global Research

Piketty Dikitty Rikitty | KUNSTLER

The debate over Thomas Piketty’s new book Capital in the Twenty-First Century is as dumb as every other issue-set in the public arena these days — a product of failed mental models, historical blindness, hubris, and wishful thinking. Piketty’s central idea is that wealth will continue to accumulate and concentrate among individual rich families at ever-greater rates and therefore that nation-states should take a number of steps to prevent that from happening or at least attempt to correct it.

The first mistake of Piketty fans such as New York Times op-ed ass Paul Krugman is the assumption that the dynamic labeled “capitalism” is an ism, a belief system that you can subscribe to or drop out of, depending on your political correctitude. That’s just not true. So-called capitalism is more like gravity, a set of laws that apply to and describe the behavior of surplus wealth, in particular wealth generated by industrial societies, which is to say unprecedented massive wealth. The human race never saw anything quite like it before. It became both a moral embarrassment and a political inconvenience. So among the intellectual grandiosities of modern times is the idea that this massive wealth can be politically managed to produce an ideal equitable society — with no side effects.

Hence, the bold but hapless 20th century experiment with statist communism, which pretended to abolish wealth but succeeded mainly in converting wealth into industrial waste and pollution, while directing the remainder to a lawless gangster government elite that ruled an expendable mass peasantry with maximum cruelty and injustice.

In the other industrial nations, loosely called “the west,” the pretense to abolish wealth altogether never completely took, but a great deal of wealth was “socialized” for the purpose of delivering public goods. That seemed to work fairly well in post-war Europe and a bit less-well in the USA after the anomalous Eisenhower decade when industrial labor enjoyed a power moment of wage arbitrage. Now that system is unraveling, and for the reason that Piketty & Company largely miss: industrial economies are winding down with the decline of cheap fossil fuels.

Complete story at - Piketty Dikitty Rikitty | KUNSTLER