Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Boris Nemtsov – A Clue That He Didn’t Believe He Was At Risk Of Assassination, Or Of Catching His Death Of Cold | Dances With Bears

By John Helmer, Moscow

When you have been the target of assassination by a powerful figure in Russia, as I have, and you survive the hit, as I did, you learn one thing or two things before; more in retrospect. One is that the Moscow police act quickly and competently, as they would elsewhere – so swiftly, in fact, that the powerful figure may not have the time to close down the investigation before the evidence can be saved. A second is that even hits ordered by powerful figures generate a trail of planning and positioning they didn’t intend to leave behind, pointing to their identity, and that in turn to their motive. A third is that in Moscow assassinations the place of ambush is always selected to raise the probability of success for the assassins, the hit, and the getaway – never the chances of survival for the victim. The fourth is that if the target is lucky, the assassination plan is interrupted by an unforeseeable mistake in placement or timing; a weapon fault; a passing witness; or a lucky circumstance.

On the physical evidence of what happened in the 30 minutes preceding the February 27 murder of Boris Nemtsov, the probability of his being attacked on Bolshoi Moskovoretsky Bridge was one in thirty-six (less than 3%). Nemtsov wasn’t just unlucky: his assassins were correspondingly fortunate, more than they could have planned.

Nemtsov wasn’t dressed for his ill-luck. Not a single western or Russian version of the evidence so far has noticed the clue that is starkly obvious from the photographic record. Nemtsov walked – repeat walked — into an ambush whose 325-second record can be studied here. The evidence has been viewed more than 306,000 times. From the photographs of his body on the pavement, and from the film clip of his entering Bosco Café it is certain Nemtsov was dressed in a pullover under a light jacket, jeans, and soft shoes. He wasn’t wearing a winter coat, hat, or gloves. No Muscovite would be without them for the 30 minutes required to walk through the city late on a winter’s night, at a temperature close to freezing, from GUM to Malaya Ordynka Street, No. 3, where Nemtsov lived. No photograph of passersby in the vicinity that night showed dress as light as Nemtsov’s.

Ask yourself why, if Nemtsov had reason to believe he was the target of assassination, as he claimed to the press, he would decide to expose himself unguarded in the precincts of the man Nemtsov claimed to be his mortal enemy. And even if you suppose Nemtsov was imprudent (brave, reckless) about that risk, ask why he would risk catching cold by walking instead of taking a taxi, as his mode of dress indicates he arranged for his arrival at the restaurant and intended for his trip home. Also, ask yourself why the media speculation and the editorials of those purporting to be Nemtsov’s friends have signally failed to notice the discrepancy between what Nemtsov was wearing, what his companion was wearing, and the meaning of the physical evidence.

The photographic record now available was generated in GUM’s First-Line passageway, outside Bosco Cafe, as Nemtsov arrived, then walked through the restaurant door; followed by his companion, Anna Duritskaya, a few seconds later. The clip runs for 38 seconds. Duritskaya was wearing winter costume – knee-length padded coat, calf-high fur boots, gloves.

Complete story at - BORIS NEMTSOV – A Clue That He Didn’t Believe He Was At Risk Of Assassination, Or Of Catching His Death Of Cold | Dances With Bears

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