Monday, April 14, 2014

The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP April 14, 13:00 EST

Ukraine SITREP April 14, 13:00 EST

It appears that the next 24 hours will be absolutely crucial for the future of the Ukraine. So far, these are the most important developments:

The following cities have seen uprisings taking place over the week-end: Kharkov, Slaviansk, Krasnyi Liman, Kramatorsk, Lugansk, Enakievo, Gorlovka, Donetsk, Khartsyzk, Ilovaisk, Mariupol. To get a feel for the spread, check out this map:


City uprisings as of April 14

Rebel cities in the eastern Ukraine

The second big development is the clear increase in the quality of the forces opposing the takeover of the eastern Ukraine by the revolutionary regime in Kiev. Up until Friday, most of the demonstrators were civilians, "armed" with bars, stones, Molotov cocktails, bats, etc. and, frankly, their barricades looked pretty lame. Over the week end some better equipped forces have appeared, this could be due to the seizure of weapons caches from the SBU, but my guess is that there is a traffic going on between Crimea and the eastern Ukraine. Some Crimeans have said so openly. Furthermore, it is very likely that there are also volunteers from Russia, probably with military backgrounds, helping out the locals. The barricades look far better built now, they are over 6 feet high and they seem much better protected.

The Kiev regime and the USA have accused Russia of having GRU agents involved. Well, I am pretty sure that they are there - they would be stupid not to - but to present the spreading insurrection as the result of the Kremlin's covert operations is rather silly. While I would expect the SVR and GRU to try to help, they are going to try to stay several steps removed in order to avoid a potential political scandal for Russia. But could the GRU be providing equipment for Russian volunteers in eastern Ukraine. Yes, that is definitely possible, thought not necessarily the most likely explanations. The fact is that nobody really knows.

Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP April 14, 13:00 EST

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