Earlier reports, including my own, that Ukraine’s currency lost 30% of its value were not entirely accurate. The reality was actually quite a bit worse: the hryvnia shed roughly 50% of its value over the course of just two days, a stunning rout that places the country a hair’s breadth away from default.
Ukraine’s foreign currency reserves are now down to a minuscule $6.42 billion (and falling!), enough to cover just five weeks worth of imports. The usually accepted rule of thumb among economic analysts is that a country needs at least six months worth of “import cover,” and that anything less than 3 months is a crisis situation. Unless it receives substantial assistance in the immediate future, Ukraine will have less than a month’s worth of foreign currency: if reserves go much lower than they are at the moment, the country could quite literally run out of dollars and euros.
For some reason that isn’t quite clear to me, discussion among Western experts has overwhelmingly centered not on the imminent economic apocalypse facing Kiev, but on whether or not the United States should supply it with advanced weapons systems to beat back the Russians. Consider, for example, what Alexander Motyl had to say at Foreign Affairs (the only time he mentioned Ukraine’s economy in a article dedicated to analyzing the ongoing crisis):
[Putin] has no way to erode Ukraine’s economy without simultaneously destroying Russia’s.
I’ve seen very similar formulations from other analysts, upbeat statements that amount to “yeah things look a little dicey at the moment but don’t worry, Ukraine’s economy will be fine.” This optimistic assessment of Ukraine’s economic position fundamentally misrepresents the power dynamics between Moscow and Kiev.
Complete story at - Ukraine's Economy Is Collapsing And The West Doesn't Seem To Care - Forbes
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Talka Notes: Actually, Mark Adomanis is being a bit dense here...
But I can help him out.
But of course he is not paid to understand things like that.
Ukraine’s foreign currency reserves are now down to a minuscule $6.42 billion (and falling!), enough to cover just five weeks worth of imports. The usually accepted rule of thumb among economic analysts is that a country needs at least six months worth of “import cover,” and that anything less than 3 months is a crisis situation. Unless it receives substantial assistance in the immediate future, Ukraine will have less than a month’s worth of foreign currency: if reserves go much lower than they are at the moment, the country could quite literally run out of dollars and euros.
For some reason that isn’t quite clear to me, discussion among Western experts has overwhelmingly centered not on the imminent economic apocalypse facing Kiev, but on whether or not the United States should supply it with advanced weapons systems to beat back the Russians. Consider, for example, what Alexander Motyl had to say at Foreign Affairs (the only time he mentioned Ukraine’s economy in a article dedicated to analyzing the ongoing crisis):
[Putin] has no way to erode Ukraine’s economy without simultaneously destroying Russia’s.
I’ve seen very similar formulations from other analysts, upbeat statements that amount to “yeah things look a little dicey at the moment but don’t worry, Ukraine’s economy will be fine.” This optimistic assessment of Ukraine’s economic position fundamentally misrepresents the power dynamics between Moscow and Kiev.
Complete story at - Ukraine's Economy Is Collapsing And The West Doesn't Seem To Care - Forbes
--------------------
Talka Notes: Actually, Mark Adomanis is being a bit dense here...
But I can help him out.
For some reason that isn’t quite clear to me, discussion among Western experts has overwhelmingly centered not on the imminent economic apocalypse facing Kiev.....The west would have no problem with an economic disaster in Ukraine. Have the whole economy fall apart and where would be the easiest place to flee? Russia, Belarus, Moldova. Since there are no visa restrictions to fleeing there. The EU sure as hell is not opening it's doors. So not only will there be a bleeding festering wound on Russia's border, you'll add on an economic disaster zone. When people flee to Russia, who has to take care of them? Russia! So now the Russian economy suffers more. And the hope is that Russians will clamor for regime change and throw Putin out. But the apparently don't understand Russians all that well here in the USA.
But of course he is not paid to understand things like that.
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