Three months ago, we wrote "How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed", in which we explained in painful detail why far from the simple macroeconomic dogma which immediately prompted the macro tourists to scream that "oil prices dropping are good for US consumers", the collapse in the price of crude is not only a disaster for oil exporting nations - one which will lead to a series of violent "Arab Springs" across the oil-producing developed world - but far more importantly, have a massive impact on capital markets as a result of the plunge in the most financialized commodity in history.
On the death of the Petrodollar we commented that unlike previously, when petrodollar recycling funneled the proceeds from oil-exports into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, henceforth "oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion." We added that "oil exporters are now pulling liquidity out of financial markets rather than putting money in. That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer."
The conclusion was simple: "net capital flows will be negative for EM, representing the first net inflow of capital (USD8bn) for the first time in eighteen years. This compares with USD60bn last year, which itself was down from USD248bn in 2012. At its peak, recycled EM petro dollars amounted to USD511bn back in 2006. The declines seen since 2006 not only reflect the changed global environment, but also the propensity of underlying exporters to begin investing the money domestically rather than save. The implications for financial markets liquidity - not to mention related downward pressure on US Treasury yields – is negative."
In retrospect, it probably was not "simple enough", because even three months ago everyone was confident that both higher yields and an increase in market liquidity are imminent. Since then not only has the yield on the 10 Year plunged to near record low levels (while 16% of global government debt now trades at negative yields), but judging by the absolute liquidity devastation in the E-Mini, in Trasurys and virtually every other asset class, few actually grasped the implications of what plunging oil really means in a world in which this most financialized of commodities plays a massive role in both the global economy and capital markets, not to mention in geopolitics, with implications far, far greater than the amateurish "yes, but gas is now cheaper" retort.
So, three months later, we are happy to report that somebody finally noticed that the Petrodollar has indeed finally died, and more importantly, has attempted to put together an analysis of what we said in early November, reaching the conclusion that plunging oil just may not be all that financial comedy TV has it cracked up to be.
Did we say somebody? We meant everyone!
Below are extensive, in-depth, and long overdue questions on petrodollar recycling, or rather its halt, and its implications from virtually every single Bank of America economist and strategist who after months of stalling, have finally been forced to confront this most critical of topics head on.
Complete story at - The Death Of The Petrodollar Was Finally Noticed | Zero Hedge
On the death of the Petrodollar we commented that unlike previously, when petrodollar recycling funneled the proceeds from oil-exports into financial markets, helping to boost asset prices and keep the cost of borrowing down, henceforth "oil producers will effectively import capital amounting to $7.6 billion." We added that "oil exporters are now pulling liquidity out of financial markets rather than putting money in. That could result in higher borrowing costs for governments, companies, and ultimately, consumers as money becomes scarcer."
The conclusion was simple: "net capital flows will be negative for EM, representing the first net inflow of capital (USD8bn) for the first time in eighteen years. This compares with USD60bn last year, which itself was down from USD248bn in 2012. At its peak, recycled EM petro dollars amounted to USD511bn back in 2006. The declines seen since 2006 not only reflect the changed global environment, but also the propensity of underlying exporters to begin investing the money domestically rather than save. The implications for financial markets liquidity - not to mention related downward pressure on US Treasury yields – is negative."
In retrospect, it probably was not "simple enough", because even three months ago everyone was confident that both higher yields and an increase in market liquidity are imminent. Since then not only has the yield on the 10 Year plunged to near record low levels (while 16% of global government debt now trades at negative yields), but judging by the absolute liquidity devastation in the E-Mini, in Trasurys and virtually every other asset class, few actually grasped the implications of what plunging oil really means in a world in which this most financialized of commodities plays a massive role in both the global economy and capital markets, not to mention in geopolitics, with implications far, far greater than the amateurish "yes, but gas is now cheaper" retort.
So, three months later, we are happy to report that somebody finally noticed that the Petrodollar has indeed finally died, and more importantly, has attempted to put together an analysis of what we said in early November, reaching the conclusion that plunging oil just may not be all that financial comedy TV has it cracked up to be.
Did we say somebody? We meant everyone!
Below are extensive, in-depth, and long overdue questions on petrodollar recycling, or rather its halt, and its implications from virtually every single Bank of America economist and strategist who after months of stalling, have finally been forced to confront this most critical of topics head on.
Complete story at - The Death Of The Petrodollar Was Finally Noticed | Zero Hedge
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