Wednesday, February 18, 2015

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP » American University in Moscow

AGREEMENT. Ceasefire. Pull-back of heavy weapons. Autonomy talks. OSCE. Does Poroshenko mean it? Can he deliver? Will Washington let him? What happens if there's a "nazi spring” in Kiev? Or in Galicia? The Donbass wants out. Will the WMSM stop its propaganda? (If Putin is so determined to conquer Ukraine why has he twice signed an agreement by which the Donbass stays there?). There's no provision for vigorous enforcement. The Debaltsevo pocket isn't cleared. It's too much like the last agreement when Kiev forces never pulled back and never stopped shelling. At best, a first small step; at worst, a pause so Kiev can try again (here's Poroshenko explaining they used the last pause to re-arm).

DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN. Obama says the US "brokered a deal on Ukraine”. Interesting slip: Washington wasn't part of the 21 February 2014 agreement. Perhaps he's referring to two American officials deciding the new Ukrainian government without reference (well one) to the EU. The ineffable Jen Psaki explains that's not what he meant. Perhaps he meant to say "broke the deal”.

IF YOU WANT ENEMIES, WE CAN DO THAT TOO. Revealing photo: why are Putin and Lukashenko smiling and the other three not? Have Hollande and Merkel just had a reality check? Could it be something like this: NATO says it's taking "necessary measures to respond to the challenges posed by Russia and their strategic implications” and lumps Russia in with "risks and threats” in the southern neighbourhood; "Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is not an isolated incident, but a game-changer in European security”. Should Russia treat these statements from the world's most powerful military alliance as empty prattle? Or should it ask itself why it's selling energy to countries that call it an enemy?

MORE REALITY. The Debaltsevo pocket traps several thousand Kiev troops. (Maps and videos). More talk of "betrayal” and the like. It is said that a million Ukrainians of military age have fled to Russia joining another million or so. Here's a video from eastern Ukraine illustrating the reaction to the latest conscription. Deserters can now be shot. German intelligence says thedeath toll is more like 50,000. Neo-nazis carefully ignored by WMSM. And the solution is more weapons? Kiev started with most of the weapons and has been regularly defeated. The rebels now even have an aircraft they captured. If you prefer, here's a Kiev side account: victory all the way!

Complete story at - RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP » American University in Moscow

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