Thursday, July 10, 2014

The Reverse Brzezinski: The Ultimate Eurasian Dilemma (I) | Oriental Review



A global shift in US strategy is currently underway, with America transitioning from the ‘world policeman’ to the Lead From Behind mastermind. This fundamental shift essentially entails the US moving from a majority forward-operating military to a defensive stay-behind force. Part of this transformation is the reduction of the conventional military and its replacement with special forces and intelligence recruits. Private military companies (PMCs) are also occupying a higher role in the US’ grand strategy. Of course, it is not to say that the US no longer has the capability or will to forward advance – not at all – but that the evolving US strategy prefers more indirect and nefarious approaches towards projecting power besides massive invasions and bombing runs. In this manner, it is following the advice of Sun Tzu who wrote that “supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” The outcome is a mixture of Color Revolutions, unconventional warfare, and mercenary interventions that avoids the direct use of US combat troops while relying heavily on regional allies’ proxy involvement. This results in the promotion of American policy via oblique methods and the retention of relative plausible deniability. Importantly, the absence of conventional forces is thought to reduce the risk of a direct confrontation between the US and Russia, China, and Iran, the primary targets of these proxy wars.

The Eurasian-wide plan of strategic destabilization and state fracturing owes its genesis to Zbigniew Brzezinski and his Eurasian Balkans concept. The US is flexible in practicing this concept, and it does not meet a dead end if the destabilization encounters an obstacle and cannot be advanced. Should this occur, as it has in Ukraine, Syria and Iraq, and possibly soon in the South China Sea, the stratagem evolves into maximizing the chaos within the launch pad states that are positioned on the doorsteps of the Eurasian Powers. The idea is to create ‘black holes’ of absolute disorder in which Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran are “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” intervene. Ideally, the US prefers that its intended targets are sucked into a quagmire that bleeds them dry and destabilizes them at home, per the example of the Soviet-Afghan War which Brzezinski conspired over 30 years ago. Moving away from the expansive Eurasian Balkans and reverting to the roots of ‘Afghan anarchy’ is the nature of the Reverse Brzezinski, and it poses the ultimate dilemma-like trap for the Eurasian Powers.

The Afghan Prototype:

The US’ experience in training and arming the Mujahideen to bring about and manage the Soviet-Afghan War can be seen as the first foray into the Lead From Behind strategy. The US worked hand-in-hand with Pakistan and other Muslim states to sow the seeds of chaos in Afghanistan (including the creation of the international mercenary organization Al Qaeda), thus creating a strategic destabilization so tempting that the Soviet Union could not resist the urge to intervene. This was the goal all along and it was a resounding success. It also the pinnacle of Cold War-era proxy warfare that meshed perfectly with the international balance of power at the time. It was so successful that it is credited as one of the contributing factors to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. This altered the global power balance and resulted in the US’ unipolar moment. During this period of time, the Afghan Lead From Behind prototype was no longer seen as necessary because the US now had the power, will, and opportunity to project power directly and forcefully all across the world.

Complete story at - The Reverse Brzezinski: The Ultimate Eurasian Dilemma (I) | Oriental Review

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