Monday, June 2, 2014

The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP May 29th, Poroshenko's weird war

Introduction: the broader background to the Ukrainian crisis

Before looking at the latest developments in the Ukraine, I think that it is important to at least mention two major developments involving Russia. First, Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus have signed the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and they will soon be joined by Armenia and Kyrgyzstan. Second, China has officially called for a new security alliance with Russia and Iran thereby proving that all the naysayers who said that China did not really mean it to form an alliance with Russia were plain wrong. As I mentioned it in a previous SITREP the scope and nature of the recent economic agreements between Russia and China already constituted what I called a crypto-alliance and now we see the first official move by China to drop the 'crypto' part of it. Again, this is truly a major tectonic shift in world politics and, arguable, the creation of the most powerful coalition of countries in history. The title of Godfather of this new coalition should really go to the USA and Barak Obama who by his amazingly arrogant and hostile policies towards both China and Russia has greatly contributed to the forging of this alliance.

This process is far from over, by the way. Not only are there discussions to expand the BRICS to other countries (like Argentina), the SCO or CSTO could also be expanded to include countries such as Iran or Pakistan. AS for the Eurasian Economic Union, it will eventually morph into a single political entity, a Eurasian alliance which could include China in economic and/or security agreements.

The entire Eurasian landmass is slowly but inexorably becoming integrated into a zone free from AngloZionist control and free of the dollar. The writing is on the wall for the AngloZionist Empire.

Latest developments in the Ukraine

The Ukrainian offensive has seen yet another dramatic escalation with, for the first time, the use of "Grad" multiple rocket launchers on the city of Slaviansk. At least one Ukrainian helicopter, reportedly carrying a general and 12 other people, has been shot down by the Novorossia Defense Forces (NDF). Sporadic artillery fire, at times intensive, has been heard through the night and casualties continue to be brought into the local hospitals. Several Ukrainian units have put down their weapons and basically surrendered to the NDF. In Sebastopol special headquarters have been set up to deal with the flow of incoming refugees. In Kiev the Parliament is considering declaring martial law which would basically give unlimited power to the junta and suspend most civil rights.

There are two ways to look at these events. You could say that a lot happened, there is an escalation taking place, people on both sides die, helicopters got shot down, units are refusing to obey criminal order, etc. But you could also say that from a purely military point of view absolutely nothing happened at all. Think of it this way:

What have we seen since the junta began its terror operation in Novorossiia? Slaviansk and Kramatorsk have been besieged and shelled. The junta forces have seized the airports near Slaviansk/Kramatorsk and Donetsk. That's it.

Now let me immediately dispel the notion that these airports are somehow strategically important. They are not. Normally, in most military conflicts, airports are very important objects, especially their runways and radars. But in this case the seizure of the Slaviansk/Kramatorsk and Donetsk airports has not been followed by any use of them by the junta, if only because there is way too much combat still taking place around them to make their use safe. Besides, what need is there for airports when everything can be reached by road anyway? What about denying the use of this airport to either the NDF or the Russians should they decide to intervene? Well, the NDF has no air assets at all, as for the Russians they sure don't need an airport to land an Airborne Regiment, Brigade or even Division. So why did the junta decide to commit its best forces to seize these airports? Simple - because they are not cities. Or, put differently, because they are located outsides cities. The fact is that the junta simply does not have the forces needed to occupy and control any city, so this is why they go for objectives which are outside cities.

Petr Poroshenko has announced that what the junta calls the "anti-terrorist operation" should not last for weeks, but only hours. So this begs the question: if the entire mix of junta forces (military + death-squads) have not succeeded in taking either Slaviansk (hab: 130'000)or Kramatorsk (hab: 165'000), what are their chances to take Donetsk (hab: 1'000'000)? Zero, of course. And even less than zero if that is to be done in a matter of a few days and hours.

So what is the point of all this?

Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Ukraine SITREP May 29th, 16:06 UTC/Zulu: Poroshenko's weird war

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