Wednesday, June 4, 2014

The Vineyard of the Saker: Translation of the "must read" article of explaining why there is no Russian intervention in the Ukraine

It is with an immense and heartfelt THANK YOU! to "BM" for his translation that I have the real privilege to share with you this translation into English of the excellent article of I mentioned in my previous post. This is, in my opinion, the most complete and well-written analysis of the apparent Russian "passivity" and we all owe "BM" a big debt of gratitude for making it available to us on such short notice. I especially encourage you all to circulate this translation as it is by far the best explanation of the Kremlin's policy.

The Saker

PS: I was also sent a link to this article with an interesting description of the condition of the Ukrainian army. Also a must read imho.


Why there is no Russian military intervention in the Ukraine

Posted on 30 Май 22:19
опубликовал Сухов боец красной армии [suho]

The level of analytical discussions on the Russian Internet is perfectly described by the political scientist Simon Uralov: "To consider that the Ukrainian crisis set off only the minds of the Kievan colleagues and turned them all into bloodthirsty hysterics is fundamentally mistaken. Among the Moscow colleagues there is also an incredible number of such." The purpose of this material is to take a step back from the hysteria and coldly analyze the situation in Ukraine.

I'll start with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally important topics:

Why is there no Russian military intervention?

If this text was written a few days earlier, a significant part of it would had to have been devote to explaining why sending troops to Ukraine was inappropriate and just plain stupid even after the referendum. Fortunately, the head of the resistance ibn Slaviansk, Igor Strelkov, coped with this task better than I: in his video message, he very clearly described the inertness of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real action to protect their interests against the junta. Anticipating the arguments about the referendum, I hasten to say that a check mark on the ballot is certainly cool, but not much different from any hipster-white-ribboned (belolentochnyh) attempts "carry mode" – the “like” on Facebook. Because a "like" handle made ​​in the bulletin doesn’t change anything. The referendum was a necessary but not sufficient action.

How much was the Kremlin prepared for events in Ukraine and how much does it improvise even now?

I advise you to read the telegram's Wikileaks:, in which it is shown that Kremlin clearly pointed out to the Americans in 2008 the scenarios that we see today: "Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face."

It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that we are now in even more unpleasant but less nuanced script that something like "Plan E".

Complete story at - The Vineyard of the Saker: Translation of the "must read" article of explaining why there is no Russian intervention in the Ukraine

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